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Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability

Brazil detected community transmission of COVID-19 on March 13, 2020. In this study we identified which areas in the country were the most vulnerable for COVID-19, both in terms of the risk of arrival of cases, the risk of sustained transmission and their social vulnerability. Probabilistic models w...

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Autores principales: Coelho, Flávio C., Lana, Raquel M., Cruz, Oswaldo G., Villela, Daniel A. M., Bastos, Leonardo S., Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Davis, Jessica T., Vespignani, Alessandro, Codeço, Claudia T., Gomes, Marcelo F. C.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7500629/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32946442
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238214
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author Coelho, Flávio C.
Lana, Raquel M.
Cruz, Oswaldo G.
Villela, Daniel A. M.
Bastos, Leonardo S.
Pastore y Piontti, Ana
Davis, Jessica T.
Vespignani, Alessandro
Codeço, Claudia T.
Gomes, Marcelo F. C.
author_facet Coelho, Flávio C.
Lana, Raquel M.
Cruz, Oswaldo G.
Villela, Daniel A. M.
Bastos, Leonardo S.
Pastore y Piontti, Ana
Davis, Jessica T.
Vespignani, Alessandro
Codeço, Claudia T.
Gomes, Marcelo F. C.
author_sort Coelho, Flávio C.
collection PubMed
description Brazil detected community transmission of COVID-19 on March 13, 2020. In this study we identified which areas in the country were the most vulnerable for COVID-19, both in terms of the risk of arrival of cases, the risk of sustained transmission and their social vulnerability. Probabilistic models were used to calculate the probability of COVID-19 spread from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the initial hotspots, using mobility data from the pre-epidemic period, while multivariate cluster analysis of socio-economic indices was done to identify areas with similar social vulnerability. The results consist of a series of maps of effective distance, outbreak probability, hospital capacity and social vulnerability. They show areas in the North and Northeast with high risk of COVID-19 outbreak that are also highly socially vulnerable. Later, these areas would be found the most severely affected. The maps produced were sent to health authorities to aid in their efforts to prioritize actions such as resource allocation to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. In the discussion, we address how predictions compared to the observed dynamics of the disease.
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spelling pubmed-75006292020-09-24 Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability Coelho, Flávio C. Lana, Raquel M. Cruz, Oswaldo G. Villela, Daniel A. M. Bastos, Leonardo S. Pastore y Piontti, Ana Davis, Jessica T. Vespignani, Alessandro Codeço, Claudia T. Gomes, Marcelo F. C. PLoS One Research Article Brazil detected community transmission of COVID-19 on March 13, 2020. In this study we identified which areas in the country were the most vulnerable for COVID-19, both in terms of the risk of arrival of cases, the risk of sustained transmission and their social vulnerability. Probabilistic models were used to calculate the probability of COVID-19 spread from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the initial hotspots, using mobility data from the pre-epidemic period, while multivariate cluster analysis of socio-economic indices was done to identify areas with similar social vulnerability. The results consist of a series of maps of effective distance, outbreak probability, hospital capacity and social vulnerability. They show areas in the North and Northeast with high risk of COVID-19 outbreak that are also highly socially vulnerable. Later, these areas would be found the most severely affected. The maps produced were sent to health authorities to aid in their efforts to prioritize actions such as resource allocation to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. In the discussion, we address how predictions compared to the observed dynamics of the disease. Public Library of Science 2020-09-18 /pmc/articles/PMC7500629/ /pubmed/32946442 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238214 Text en © 2020 Coelho et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Coelho, Flávio C.
Lana, Raquel M.
Cruz, Oswaldo G.
Villela, Daniel A. M.
Bastos, Leonardo S.
Pastore y Piontti, Ana
Davis, Jessica T.
Vespignani, Alessandro
Codeço, Claudia T.
Gomes, Marcelo F. C.
Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability
title Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability
title_full Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability
title_fullStr Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability
title_short Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability
title_sort assessing the spread of covid-19 in brazil: mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7500629/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32946442
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238214
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