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Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling

Coupling of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon (IM) is central to seasonal summer monsoon rainfall predictions over the Indian subcontinent, although a nonstationary relationship between the two nonlinear phenomena can limit seasonal predictability. Radiative effects of volca...

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Autores principales: Singh, M., Krishnan, R., Goswami, B., Choudhury, A. D., Swapna, P., Vellore, R., Prajeesh, A. G., Sandeep, N., Venkataraman, C., Donner, R. V., Marwan, N., Kurths, J.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7500933/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32948581
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba8164
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author Singh, M.
Krishnan, R.
Goswami, B.
Choudhury, A. D.
Swapna, P.
Vellore, R.
Prajeesh, A. G.
Sandeep, N.
Venkataraman, C.
Donner, R. V.
Marwan, N.
Kurths, J.
author_facet Singh, M.
Krishnan, R.
Goswami, B.
Choudhury, A. D.
Swapna, P.
Vellore, R.
Prajeesh, A. G.
Sandeep, N.
Venkataraman, C.
Donner, R. V.
Marwan, N.
Kurths, J.
author_sort Singh, M.
collection PubMed
description Coupling of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon (IM) is central to seasonal summer monsoon rainfall predictions over the Indian subcontinent, although a nonstationary relationship between the two nonlinear phenomena can limit seasonal predictability. Radiative effects of volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere during large volcanic eruptions (LVEs) tend to alter ENSO evolution; however, their impact on ENSO-IM coupling remains unclear. Here, we investigate how LVEs influence the nonlinear behavior of the ENSO and IM dynamical systems using historical data, 25 paleoclimate reconstructions, last-millennium climate simulations, large-ensemble targeted climate sensitivity experiments, and advanced analysis techniques. Our findings show that LVEs promote a significantly enhanced phase-synchronization of the ENSO and IM oscillations, due to an increase in the angular frequency of ENSO. The results also shed innovative insights into the physical mechanism underlying the LVE-induced enhancement of ENSO-IM coupling and strengthen the prospects for improved seasonal monsoon predictions.
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spelling pubmed-75009332020-09-24 Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling Singh, M. Krishnan, R. Goswami, B. Choudhury, A. D. Swapna, P. Vellore, R. Prajeesh, A. G. Sandeep, N. Venkataraman, C. Donner, R. V. Marwan, N. Kurths, J. Sci Adv Research Articles Coupling of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon (IM) is central to seasonal summer monsoon rainfall predictions over the Indian subcontinent, although a nonstationary relationship between the two nonlinear phenomena can limit seasonal predictability. Radiative effects of volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere during large volcanic eruptions (LVEs) tend to alter ENSO evolution; however, their impact on ENSO-IM coupling remains unclear. Here, we investigate how LVEs influence the nonlinear behavior of the ENSO and IM dynamical systems using historical data, 25 paleoclimate reconstructions, last-millennium climate simulations, large-ensemble targeted climate sensitivity experiments, and advanced analysis techniques. Our findings show that LVEs promote a significantly enhanced phase-synchronization of the ENSO and IM oscillations, due to an increase in the angular frequency of ENSO. The results also shed innovative insights into the physical mechanism underlying the LVE-induced enhancement of ENSO-IM coupling and strengthen the prospects for improved seasonal monsoon predictions. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2020-09-18 /pmc/articles/PMC7500933/ /pubmed/32948581 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba8164 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Singh, M.
Krishnan, R.
Goswami, B.
Choudhury, A. D.
Swapna, P.
Vellore, R.
Prajeesh, A. G.
Sandeep, N.
Venkataraman, C.
Donner, R. V.
Marwan, N.
Kurths, J.
Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling
title Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling
title_full Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling
title_fullStr Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling
title_full_unstemmed Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling
title_short Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling
title_sort fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the enso–indian monsoon coupling
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7500933/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32948581
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba8164
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