Ecological Drift and Directional Community Change in an Isolated Mediterranean Forest Reserve—Larger Moth Species Under Higher Threat

Long-term data are important to understand the changes in ecological communities over time but are quite rare for insects. We analyzed such changes using historic museum collections. For our study area, an isolated forest reserve in North-East Italy, data from the past 80 yr were available. We used records of 300 moth species to analyze whether extinction risk was linked to their body size or to their degree of ecological specialization. Specialization was scored 1) by classifying larval food affiliations, habitat preferences, and the northern distributional limit and 2) by analyzing functional dispersion (FDis) within species assemblages over time. Our results show that locally extinct species (mean wingspan: 37.0 mm) were larger than persistent (33.2 mm) or previously unrecorded ones (30.7 mm), leading to a smaller mean wingspan of the moth community over time. Some ecological filters appear to have selected against bigger species. By using coarse specialization categories, we did not observe any relationship with local extinction risk. However, FDis, calculated across 12 species traits, significantly decreased over time. We conclude that simple classification systems might fail in reflecting changes in community-wide specialization. Multivariate approaches such as FDis may provide deeper insight, as they reflect a variety of ecological niche dimensions. With the abandonment of extensive land use practices, natural succession seems to have shifted the moth community toward a preponderance of forest-affiliated species, leading to decreased FDis values. Multivariate analyses of species composition also confirmed that the moth community has significantly changed during the last 80 yr.