Predictive modeling of neurobehavioral state and trait variation across development

A key goal of human neurodevelopmental research is to map neural and behavioral trajectories across both health and disease. A growing number of developmental consortia have begun to address this gap by providing open access to cross-sectional and longitudinal 'big data' repositories. However, it remains challenging to develop models that enable prediction of both within-subject and between-subject neurodevelopmental variation. Here, we present a conceptual and analytical perspective of two essential ingredients for mapping neurodevelopmental trajectories: state and trait components of variance. We focus on mapping variation across a range of neural and behavioral measurements and consider concurrent alterations of state and trait variation across development. We present a quantitative framework for combining both state- and trait-specific sources of neurobehavioral variation across development. Specifically, we argue that non-linear mixed growth models that leverage state and trait components of variance and consider environmental factors are necessary to comprehensively map brain-behavior relationships. We discuss this framework in the context of mapping language neurodevelopmental changes in early childhood, with an emphasis on measures of functional connectivity and their reliability for establishing robust neurobehavioral relationships. The ultimate goal is to statistically unravel developmental trajectories of neurobehavioral relationships that involve a combination of individual differences and age-related changes.