Applying ecosystem services as a framework to analyze the effects of alternative bio-economy scenarios in Nordic catchments

The inherently unknown future development of a Nordic bio-economy was studied with four scenarios applied in an ecosystem service assessment framework. This framework couples CORINE land use cover with estimates of 15 final ecosystem services from the CICES 5.1 classification in biophysical and monetary terms. Current land use in two catchments, Lillebæk (83% cropland, area 4.7 km(2), Denmark) and Ovre Haldenvassdraget (67% forest, 1006 km(2), Norway) was compared with four scenarios for 2050. One scenario focusing on sustainability and environmental awareness led to considerable changes in land use and ecosystem service delivery (more diverse provisioning and higher value of regulating services, but not a higher total economic value), whereas the other three did not deviate markedly from the current scenario. Projected land use scenarios were verified with experts and stakeholder representatives. We conclude that the framework has sufficient resolution to show differences in service delivery among scenarios. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01348-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.