Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals

INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS: We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça, Magalhães, Mônica de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra, Xavier, Diego Ricardo, Saldanha, Raphael de Freitas, Catão, Rafael de Castro
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT 2020
Materias:
Short Communication
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7508200/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32965454
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0469-2020
Descripción
Sumario:INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS: We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities. RESULTS: All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase. CONCLUSIONS: Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.

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