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Impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability
As photovoltaic power is expanding rapidly worldwide, it is imperative to assess its promise under future climate scenarios. While a great deal of research has been devoted to trends in mean solar radiation, less attention has been paid to its intermittent character, a key challenge when compounded...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7508863/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32963258 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18602-6 |
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author | Yin, Jun Molini, Annalisa Porporato, Amilcare |
author_facet | Yin, Jun Molini, Annalisa Porporato, Amilcare |
author_sort | Yin, Jun |
collection | PubMed |
description | As photovoltaic power is expanding rapidly worldwide, it is imperative to assess its promise under future climate scenarios. While a great deal of research has been devoted to trends in mean solar radiation, less attention has been paid to its intermittent character, a key challenge when compounded with uncertainties related to climate variability. Using both satellite data and climate model outputs, we characterize solar radiation intermittency to assess future photovoltaic reliability. We find that the relation between the future power supply and long-term mean solar radiation trends is spatially heterogeneous, showing power reliability is more sensitive to the fluctuations of mean solar radiation in hot arid regions. Our results highlight how reliability analysis must account simultaneously for the mean and intermittency of solar inputs when assessing the impacts of climate change on photovoltaics. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7508863 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-75088632020-10-08 Impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability Yin, Jun Molini, Annalisa Porporato, Amilcare Nat Commun Article As photovoltaic power is expanding rapidly worldwide, it is imperative to assess its promise under future climate scenarios. While a great deal of research has been devoted to trends in mean solar radiation, less attention has been paid to its intermittent character, a key challenge when compounded with uncertainties related to climate variability. Using both satellite data and climate model outputs, we characterize solar radiation intermittency to assess future photovoltaic reliability. We find that the relation between the future power supply and long-term mean solar radiation trends is spatially heterogeneous, showing power reliability is more sensitive to the fluctuations of mean solar radiation in hot arid regions. Our results highlight how reliability analysis must account simultaneously for the mean and intermittency of solar inputs when assessing the impacts of climate change on photovoltaics. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-09-22 /pmc/articles/PMC7508863/ /pubmed/32963258 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18602-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Yin, Jun Molini, Annalisa Porporato, Amilcare Impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability |
title | Impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability |
title_full | Impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability |
title_fullStr | Impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability |
title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability |
title_short | Impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability |
title_sort | impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7508863/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32963258 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18602-6 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT yinjun impactsofsolarintermittencyonfuturephotovoltaicreliability AT moliniannalisa impactsofsolarintermittencyonfuturephotovoltaicreliability AT porporatoamilcare impactsofsolarintermittencyonfuturephotovoltaicreliability |