Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China

The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Removed (SEIAR) epidemic model is one of most frequently used epidemic models. As an application of uncertain differential equations to epidemiology, an uncertain SEIAR model is derived which considers the human uncertainty factors during the spread of...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Jia, Lifen, Chen, Wei
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7512229/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10700-020-09341-w
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author Jia, Lifen
Chen, Wei
author_facet Jia, Lifen
Chen, Wei
author_sort Jia, Lifen
collection PubMed
description The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Removed (SEIAR) epidemic model is one of most frequently used epidemic models. As an application of uncertain differential equations to epidemiology, an uncertain SEIAR model is derived which considers the human uncertainty factors during the spread of an epidemic. The parameters in the uncertain epidemic model are estimated with the numbers of COVID-19 cases in China, and a prediction to the possible numbers of active cases is made based on the estimates.
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spelling pubmed-75122292020-09-24 Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China Jia, Lifen Chen, Wei Fuzzy Optim Decis Making Article The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Removed (SEIAR) epidemic model is one of most frequently used epidemic models. As an application of uncertain differential equations to epidemiology, an uncertain SEIAR model is derived which considers the human uncertainty factors during the spread of an epidemic. The parameters in the uncertain epidemic model are estimated with the numbers of COVID-19 cases in China, and a prediction to the possible numbers of active cases is made based on the estimates. Springer US 2020-09-24 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7512229/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10700-020-09341-w Text en © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Jia, Lifen
Chen, Wei
Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China
title Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China
title_full Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China
title_fullStr Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China
title_full_unstemmed Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China
title_short Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China
title_sort uncertain seiar model for covid-19 cases in china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7512229/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10700-020-09341-w
work_keys_str_mv AT jialifen uncertainseiarmodelforcovid19casesinchina
AT chenwei uncertainseiarmodelforcovid19casesinchina

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