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Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France)

Analysis of daily solar irradiation variability and predictability in space and time is important for energy resources planning, development, and management. The natural intermittency of solar irradiation is mainly triggered by atmospheric turbulent conditions, radiative transfer, optical properties...

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Autores principales: Bessafi, Miloud, Mihailović, Dragutin T., Malinović-Milićević, Slavica, Mihailović, Anja, Jumaux, Guillaume, Bonnardot, François, Fanchette, Yannick, Chabriat, Jean-Pierre
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7512557/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33266670
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e20120946
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author Bessafi, Miloud
Mihailović, Dragutin T.
Malinović-Milićević, Slavica
Mihailović, Anja
Jumaux, Guillaume
Bonnardot, François
Fanchette, Yannick
Chabriat, Jean-Pierre
author_facet Bessafi, Miloud
Mihailović, Dragutin T.
Malinović-Milićević, Slavica
Mihailović, Anja
Jumaux, Guillaume
Bonnardot, François
Fanchette, Yannick
Chabriat, Jean-Pierre
author_sort Bessafi, Miloud
collection PubMed
description Analysis of daily solar irradiation variability and predictability in space and time is important for energy resources planning, development, and management. The natural intermittency of solar irradiation is mainly triggered by atmospheric turbulent conditions, radiative transfer, optical properties of cloud and aerosol, moisture and atmospheric stability, orographic and thermal forcing, which introduce additional complexity into the phenomenological records. To address this question for daily solar irradiation data recorded during the period 2011–2015, at 32 stations measuring solar irradiance on La Reunion French tropical Indian Ocean Island, we use the tools of non-linear dynamics: the intermittency and chaos analysis, the largest Lyapunov exponent, Sample entropy, the Kolmogorov complexity and its derivatives (Kolmogorov complexity spectrum and its highest value), and spatial weighted Kolmogorov complexity combined with Hamming distance to assess complexity and corresponding predictability. Finally, we have clustered the Kolmogorov time (that quantifies the time span beyond which randomness significantly influences predictability) for daily cumulative solar irradiation for all stations. We show that under the record-breaking 2011–2012 La Nina event and preceding a very strong El-Nino 2015–2016 event, the predictability of daily incident solar energy over La Réunion is affected.
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spelling pubmed-75125572020-11-09 Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France) Bessafi, Miloud Mihailović, Dragutin T. Malinović-Milićević, Slavica Mihailović, Anja Jumaux, Guillaume Bonnardot, François Fanchette, Yannick Chabriat, Jean-Pierre Entropy (Basel) Article Analysis of daily solar irradiation variability and predictability in space and time is important for energy resources planning, development, and management. The natural intermittency of solar irradiation is mainly triggered by atmospheric turbulent conditions, radiative transfer, optical properties of cloud and aerosol, moisture and atmospheric stability, orographic and thermal forcing, which introduce additional complexity into the phenomenological records. To address this question for daily solar irradiation data recorded during the period 2011–2015, at 32 stations measuring solar irradiance on La Reunion French tropical Indian Ocean Island, we use the tools of non-linear dynamics: the intermittency and chaos analysis, the largest Lyapunov exponent, Sample entropy, the Kolmogorov complexity and its derivatives (Kolmogorov complexity spectrum and its highest value), and spatial weighted Kolmogorov complexity combined with Hamming distance to assess complexity and corresponding predictability. Finally, we have clustered the Kolmogorov time (that quantifies the time span beyond which randomness significantly influences predictability) for daily cumulative solar irradiation for all stations. We show that under the record-breaking 2011–2012 La Nina event and preceding a very strong El-Nino 2015–2016 event, the predictability of daily incident solar energy over La Réunion is affected. MDPI 2018-12-08 /pmc/articles/PMC7512557/ /pubmed/33266670 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e20120946 Text en © 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Bessafi, Miloud
Mihailović, Dragutin T.
Malinović-Milićević, Slavica
Mihailović, Anja
Jumaux, Guillaume
Bonnardot, François
Fanchette, Yannick
Chabriat, Jean-Pierre
Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France)
title Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France)
title_full Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France)
title_fullStr Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France)
title_full_unstemmed Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France)
title_short Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France)
title_sort spatial and temporal non-linear dynamics analysis and predictability of solar radiation time series for la reunion island (france)
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7512557/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33266670
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e20120946
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