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Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance

Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known intern...

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Autores principales: Nicastro, Fabrizio, Sironi, Giorgia, Antonello, Elio, Bianco, Andrea, Biasin, Mara, Brucato, John R., Ermolli, Ilaria, Pareschi, Giovanni, Salvati, Marta, Tozzi, Paolo, Trabattoni, Daria, Clerici, Mario
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7513765/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32995710
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2020.101605
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author Nicastro, Fabrizio
Sironi, Giorgia
Antonello, Elio
Bianco, Andrea
Biasin, Mara
Brucato, John R.
Ermolli, Ilaria
Pareschi, Giovanni
Salvati, Marta
Tozzi, Paolo
Trabattoni, Daria
Clerici, Mario
author_facet Nicastro, Fabrizio
Sironi, Giorgia
Antonello, Elio
Bianco, Andrea
Biasin, Mara
Brucato, John R.
Ermolli, Ilaria
Pareschi, Giovanni
Salvati, Marta
Tozzi, Paolo
Trabattoni, Daria
Clerici, Mario
author_sort Nicastro, Fabrizio
collection PubMed
description Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase differences. Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on the Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in the presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations.
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spelling pubmed-75137652020-09-25 Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance Nicastro, Fabrizio Sironi, Giorgia Antonello, Elio Bianco, Andrea Biasin, Mara Brucato, John R. Ermolli, Ilaria Pareschi, Giovanni Salvati, Marta Tozzi, Paolo Trabattoni, Daria Clerici, Mario iScience Article Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase differences. Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on the Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in the presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations. Elsevier 2020-09-24 /pmc/articles/PMC7513765/ /pubmed/32995710 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2020.101605 Text en © 2020 The Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Nicastro, Fabrizio
Sironi, Giorgia
Antonello, Elio
Bianco, Andrea
Biasin, Mara
Brucato, John R.
Ermolli, Ilaria
Pareschi, Giovanni
Salvati, Marta
Tozzi, Paolo
Trabattoni, Daria
Clerici, Mario
Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance
title Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance
title_full Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance
title_fullStr Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance
title_full_unstemmed Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance
title_short Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance
title_sort forcing seasonality of influenza-like epidemics with daily solar resonance
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7513765/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32995710
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2020.101605
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