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Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance
Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known intern...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7513765/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32995710 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2020.101605 |
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author | Nicastro, Fabrizio Sironi, Giorgia Antonello, Elio Bianco, Andrea Biasin, Mara Brucato, John R. Ermolli, Ilaria Pareschi, Giovanni Salvati, Marta Tozzi, Paolo Trabattoni, Daria Clerici, Mario |
author_facet | Nicastro, Fabrizio Sironi, Giorgia Antonello, Elio Bianco, Andrea Biasin, Mara Brucato, John R. Ermolli, Ilaria Pareschi, Giovanni Salvati, Marta Tozzi, Paolo Trabattoni, Daria Clerici, Mario |
author_sort | Nicastro, Fabrizio |
collection | PubMed |
description | Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase differences. Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on the Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in the presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7513765 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Elsevier |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-75137652020-09-25 Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance Nicastro, Fabrizio Sironi, Giorgia Antonello, Elio Bianco, Andrea Biasin, Mara Brucato, John R. Ermolli, Ilaria Pareschi, Giovanni Salvati, Marta Tozzi, Paolo Trabattoni, Daria Clerici, Mario iScience Article Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase differences. Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on the Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in the presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations. Elsevier 2020-09-24 /pmc/articles/PMC7513765/ /pubmed/32995710 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2020.101605 Text en © 2020 The Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Nicastro, Fabrizio Sironi, Giorgia Antonello, Elio Bianco, Andrea Biasin, Mara Brucato, John R. Ermolli, Ilaria Pareschi, Giovanni Salvati, Marta Tozzi, Paolo Trabattoni, Daria Clerici, Mario Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance |
title | Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance |
title_full | Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance |
title_fullStr | Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance |
title_full_unstemmed | Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance |
title_short | Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance |
title_sort | forcing seasonality of influenza-like epidemics with daily solar resonance |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7513765/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32995710 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2020.101605 |
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