Low-carbon energy in the Gulf: Upending the rentier state?

The six Gulf monarchies are major stakeholders in the global energy system. Collectively, they account for one-quarter of global oil production, comprise the biggest source of oil exports, and are responsible for one-third of internationally traded gas. However, the ongoing transformation of this energy system towards a low-carbon one will have profound consequences for them in terms of geopolitical considerations and domestic rentier arrangements. This article focuses on the latter, which has received far less attention. Falling between the nexus of the ‘rentier state’ and the political economy of low-carbon energy, the article seeks to determine the extent to which the increasing deployment of low-carbon energy in the Gulf may mitigate against the effects of the hydrocarbon-fuelled ‘resource curse’. These are associated with revenue volatility, jobs, and the private sector. The argument advanced here is that low-carbon energy will likely reinforce pre-existing rentier states and their development challenges. In this connection, the increasing uptake of low-carbon energy contributes to the survival of resource-rich Gulf monarchies.