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Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors

We aim to develop and validate an effective nomogram prognostic model for patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors using a large patient cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors betwee...

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Autores principales: Dong, Shenghua, Liang, Jun, Zhai, Wenxin, Yu, Zhuang
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7515482/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32889829
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/COC.0000000000000715
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author Dong, Shenghua
Liang, Jun
Zhai, Wenxin
Yu, Zhuang
author_facet Dong, Shenghua
Liang, Jun
Zhai, Wenxin
Yu, Zhuang
author_sort Dong, Shenghua
collection PubMed
description We aim to develop and validate an effective nomogram prognostic model for patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors using a large patient cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the SEER database for retrospective analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis was performed to clarify independent prognostic factors. Next, a nomogram was formulated to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS). Concordance indexes (c-index), receiver operating characteristic analysis and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model. RESULTS: The selected patients were randomly divided into a training and a validation cohort. A nomogram was established based on the training cohort. Cox analysis results indicated that age, sex, T stage, N stage, surgery, and bone metastasis were independent variables for OS. All these factors, except surgery, were included in the nomogram model for predicting 3- and 5-year OS. The internally and externally validated c-indexes were 0.787 and 0.817, respectively. For the 3-year survival prediction, receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the areas under the curve in the training and validation cohorts were 0.824 and 0.795, respectively. For the 5-year survival prediction, the area under the curve in the training and validation cohorts were 0.812 and 0.787, respectively. The calibration plots for probability of survival were in good agreement. CONCLUSION: The nomogram brings us closer to personalized medicine and the maximization of predictive accuracy in the prediction of OS in patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors.
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spelling pubmed-75154822020-10-14 Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors Dong, Shenghua Liang, Jun Zhai, Wenxin Yu, Zhuang Am J Clin Oncol Original Articles: Thoracic We aim to develop and validate an effective nomogram prognostic model for patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors using a large patient cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the SEER database for retrospective analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis was performed to clarify independent prognostic factors. Next, a nomogram was formulated to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS). Concordance indexes (c-index), receiver operating characteristic analysis and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model. RESULTS: The selected patients were randomly divided into a training and a validation cohort. A nomogram was established based on the training cohort. Cox analysis results indicated that age, sex, T stage, N stage, surgery, and bone metastasis were independent variables for OS. All these factors, except surgery, were included in the nomogram model for predicting 3- and 5-year OS. The internally and externally validated c-indexes were 0.787 and 0.817, respectively. For the 3-year survival prediction, receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the areas under the curve in the training and validation cohorts were 0.824 and 0.795, respectively. For the 5-year survival prediction, the area under the curve in the training and validation cohorts were 0.812 and 0.787, respectively. The calibration plots for probability of survival were in good agreement. CONCLUSION: The nomogram brings us closer to personalized medicine and the maximization of predictive accuracy in the prediction of OS in patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2020-09 2020-06-02 /pmc/articles/PMC7515482/ /pubmed/32889829 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/COC.0000000000000715 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
spellingShingle Original Articles: Thoracic
Dong, Shenghua
Liang, Jun
Zhai, Wenxin
Yu, Zhuang
Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors
title Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors
title_full Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors
title_fullStr Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors
title_full_unstemmed Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors
title_short Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors
title_sort development and validation of an individualized nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors
topic Original Articles: Thoracic
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7515482/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32889829
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/COC.0000000000000715
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