Cargando…
Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors
We aim to develop and validate an effective nomogram prognostic model for patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors using a large patient cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors betwee...
Autores principales: | , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
2020
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7515482/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32889829 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/COC.0000000000000715 |
_version_ | 1783586822729760768 |
---|---|
author | Dong, Shenghua Liang, Jun Zhai, Wenxin Yu, Zhuang |
author_facet | Dong, Shenghua Liang, Jun Zhai, Wenxin Yu, Zhuang |
author_sort | Dong, Shenghua |
collection | PubMed |
description | We aim to develop and validate an effective nomogram prognostic model for patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors using a large patient cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the SEER database for retrospective analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis was performed to clarify independent prognostic factors. Next, a nomogram was formulated to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS). Concordance indexes (c-index), receiver operating characteristic analysis and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model. RESULTS: The selected patients were randomly divided into a training and a validation cohort. A nomogram was established based on the training cohort. Cox analysis results indicated that age, sex, T stage, N stage, surgery, and bone metastasis were independent variables for OS. All these factors, except surgery, were included in the nomogram model for predicting 3- and 5-year OS. The internally and externally validated c-indexes were 0.787 and 0.817, respectively. For the 3-year survival prediction, receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the areas under the curve in the training and validation cohorts were 0.824 and 0.795, respectively. For the 5-year survival prediction, the area under the curve in the training and validation cohorts were 0.812 and 0.787, respectively. The calibration plots for probability of survival were in good agreement. CONCLUSION: The nomogram brings us closer to personalized medicine and the maximization of predictive accuracy in the prediction of OS in patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7515482 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-75154822020-10-14 Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors Dong, Shenghua Liang, Jun Zhai, Wenxin Yu, Zhuang Am J Clin Oncol Original Articles: Thoracic We aim to develop and validate an effective nomogram prognostic model for patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors using a large patient cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the SEER database for retrospective analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis was performed to clarify independent prognostic factors. Next, a nomogram was formulated to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS). Concordance indexes (c-index), receiver operating characteristic analysis and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model. RESULTS: The selected patients were randomly divided into a training and a validation cohort. A nomogram was established based on the training cohort. Cox analysis results indicated that age, sex, T stage, N stage, surgery, and bone metastasis were independent variables for OS. All these factors, except surgery, were included in the nomogram model for predicting 3- and 5-year OS. The internally and externally validated c-indexes were 0.787 and 0.817, respectively. For the 3-year survival prediction, receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the areas under the curve in the training and validation cohorts were 0.824 and 0.795, respectively. For the 5-year survival prediction, the area under the curve in the training and validation cohorts were 0.812 and 0.787, respectively. The calibration plots for probability of survival were in good agreement. CONCLUSION: The nomogram brings us closer to personalized medicine and the maximization of predictive accuracy in the prediction of OS in patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2020-09 2020-06-02 /pmc/articles/PMC7515482/ /pubmed/32889829 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/COC.0000000000000715 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Original Articles: Thoracic Dong, Shenghua Liang, Jun Zhai, Wenxin Yu, Zhuang Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors |
title | Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors |
title_full | Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors |
title_fullStr | Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors |
title_full_unstemmed | Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors |
title_short | Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors |
title_sort | development and validation of an individualized nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors |
topic | Original Articles: Thoracic |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7515482/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32889829 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/COC.0000000000000715 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT dongshenghua developmentandvalidationofanindividualizednomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivalinpatientswithtypicallungcarcinoidtumors AT liangjun developmentandvalidationofanindividualizednomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivalinpatientswithtypicallungcarcinoidtumors AT zhaiwenxin developmentandvalidationofanindividualizednomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivalinpatientswithtypicallungcarcinoidtumors AT yuzhuang developmentandvalidationofanindividualizednomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivalinpatientswithtypicallungcarcinoidtumors |