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Computer Assisted Wargame for Military Capability-Based Planning

Capability-based planning as an approach to defense planning is an almost infinitely complex engineered system with countless nodes and layers of interdependency, influenced by state and non-state diplomatic activities, information, military and economic actions creating secondary and third order ef...

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Autores principales: Hodický, Jan, Procházka, Dalibor, Baxa, Fabian, Melichar, Josef, Krejčík, Milan, Křížek, Petr, Stodola, Petr, Drozd, Jan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7517458/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33286631
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e22080861
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author Hodický, Jan
Procházka, Dalibor
Baxa, Fabian
Melichar, Josef
Krejčík, Milan
Křížek, Petr
Stodola, Petr
Drozd, Jan
author_facet Hodický, Jan
Procházka, Dalibor
Baxa, Fabian
Melichar, Josef
Krejčík, Milan
Křížek, Petr
Stodola, Petr
Drozd, Jan
author_sort Hodický, Jan
collection PubMed
description Capability-based planning as an approach to defense planning is an almost infinitely complex engineered system with countless nodes and layers of interdependency, influenced by state and non-state diplomatic activities, information, military and economic actions creating secondary and third order effects. The main output of capability-based planning is the set of capability requirements needed to achieve the expected end-state. One revitalized qualitative technique that allows us to gain insights into unstructured and fuzzy problems in the military is wargaming—in its simplest form this involves manual wargaming. At the same time, there has been a push to bring computer assistance to such wargaming, especially to support umpire adjudication and move more generally towards full automation of human elements in wargames. However, computer assistance in wargaming should not be pushed, regardless of cost, towards quantitative techniques. The objective complexity of a problem often does not allow us to replicate the operational environment with the required fidelity to get credible experimental results. This paper discusses a discovery experiment aiming to verify the concept of applying a qualitative expert system within computer assisted wargaming for developing capability requirements in order to reduce umpire bias and risk associated with their decisions. The innovation here lies in applying system dynamics modelling and simulation paradigms when designing the theoretical model of capability development, which forms the core of the expert system. This new approach enables qualitative comparisons between different sets of proposed capability requirements. Moreover, the expert system allows us to reveal the effects of budget cuts on proposed capability requirement solutions, which the umpire was previously unable to articulate when comparing individual solutions by relying solely on his own knowledge. Players in the wargame validated the proposed concept and suggested how the study might be developed going forward: namely, by enabling users to define their own capabilities and not being limited by a predefined set of capabilities.
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spelling pubmed-75174582020-11-09 Computer Assisted Wargame for Military Capability-Based Planning Hodický, Jan Procházka, Dalibor Baxa, Fabian Melichar, Josef Krejčík, Milan Křížek, Petr Stodola, Petr Drozd, Jan Entropy (Basel) Article Capability-based planning as an approach to defense planning is an almost infinitely complex engineered system with countless nodes and layers of interdependency, influenced by state and non-state diplomatic activities, information, military and economic actions creating secondary and third order effects. The main output of capability-based planning is the set of capability requirements needed to achieve the expected end-state. One revitalized qualitative technique that allows us to gain insights into unstructured and fuzzy problems in the military is wargaming—in its simplest form this involves manual wargaming. At the same time, there has been a push to bring computer assistance to such wargaming, especially to support umpire adjudication and move more generally towards full automation of human elements in wargames. However, computer assistance in wargaming should not be pushed, regardless of cost, towards quantitative techniques. The objective complexity of a problem often does not allow us to replicate the operational environment with the required fidelity to get credible experimental results. This paper discusses a discovery experiment aiming to verify the concept of applying a qualitative expert system within computer assisted wargaming for developing capability requirements in order to reduce umpire bias and risk associated with their decisions. The innovation here lies in applying system dynamics modelling and simulation paradigms when designing the theoretical model of capability development, which forms the core of the expert system. This new approach enables qualitative comparisons between different sets of proposed capability requirements. Moreover, the expert system allows us to reveal the effects of budget cuts on proposed capability requirement solutions, which the umpire was previously unable to articulate when comparing individual solutions by relying solely on his own knowledge. Players in the wargame validated the proposed concept and suggested how the study might be developed going forward: namely, by enabling users to define their own capabilities and not being limited by a predefined set of capabilities. MDPI 2020-08-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7517458/ /pubmed/33286631 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e22080861 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Hodický, Jan
Procházka, Dalibor
Baxa, Fabian
Melichar, Josef
Krejčík, Milan
Křížek, Petr
Stodola, Petr
Drozd, Jan
Computer Assisted Wargame for Military Capability-Based Planning
title Computer Assisted Wargame for Military Capability-Based Planning
title_full Computer Assisted Wargame for Military Capability-Based Planning
title_fullStr Computer Assisted Wargame for Military Capability-Based Planning
title_full_unstemmed Computer Assisted Wargame for Military Capability-Based Planning
title_short Computer Assisted Wargame for Military Capability-Based Planning
title_sort computer assisted wargame for military capability-based planning
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7517458/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33286631
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e22080861
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