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Some Dissimilarity Measures of Branching Processes and Optimal Decision Making in the Presence of Potential Pandemics

We compute exact values respectively bounds of dissimilarity/distinguishability measures–in the sense of the Kullback-Leibler information distance (relative entropy) and some transforms of more general power divergences and Renyi divergences–between two competing discrete-time Galton-Watson branchin...

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Autores principales: Kammerer, Niels B., Stummer, Wolfgang
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7517477/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33286645
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e22080874
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author Kammerer, Niels B.
Stummer, Wolfgang
author_facet Kammerer, Niels B.
Stummer, Wolfgang
author_sort Kammerer, Niels B.
collection PubMed
description We compute exact values respectively bounds of dissimilarity/distinguishability measures–in the sense of the Kullback-Leibler information distance (relative entropy) and some transforms of more general power divergences and Renyi divergences–between two competing discrete-time Galton-Watson branching processes with immigration GWI for which the offspring as well as the immigration (importation) is arbitrarily Poisson-distributed; especially, we allow for arbitrary type of extinction-concerning criticality and thus for non-stationarity. We apply this to optimal decision making in the context of the spread of potentially pandemic infectious diseases (such as e.g., the current COVID-19 pandemic), e.g., covering different levels of dangerousness and different kinds of intervention/mitigation strategies. Asymptotic distinguishability behaviour and diffusion limits are investigated, too.
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spelling pubmed-75174772020-11-09 Some Dissimilarity Measures of Branching Processes and Optimal Decision Making in the Presence of Potential Pandemics Kammerer, Niels B. Stummer, Wolfgang Entropy (Basel) Article We compute exact values respectively bounds of dissimilarity/distinguishability measures–in the sense of the Kullback-Leibler information distance (relative entropy) and some transforms of more general power divergences and Renyi divergences–between two competing discrete-time Galton-Watson branching processes with immigration GWI for which the offspring as well as the immigration (importation) is arbitrarily Poisson-distributed; especially, we allow for arbitrary type of extinction-concerning criticality and thus for non-stationarity. We apply this to optimal decision making in the context of the spread of potentially pandemic infectious diseases (such as e.g., the current COVID-19 pandemic), e.g., covering different levels of dangerousness and different kinds of intervention/mitigation strategies. Asymptotic distinguishability behaviour and diffusion limits are investigated, too. MDPI 2020-08-08 /pmc/articles/PMC7517477/ /pubmed/33286645 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e22080874 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Kammerer, Niels B.
Stummer, Wolfgang
Some Dissimilarity Measures of Branching Processes and Optimal Decision Making in the Presence of Potential Pandemics
title Some Dissimilarity Measures of Branching Processes and Optimal Decision Making in the Presence of Potential Pandemics
title_full Some Dissimilarity Measures of Branching Processes and Optimal Decision Making in the Presence of Potential Pandemics
title_fullStr Some Dissimilarity Measures of Branching Processes and Optimal Decision Making in the Presence of Potential Pandemics
title_full_unstemmed Some Dissimilarity Measures of Branching Processes and Optimal Decision Making in the Presence of Potential Pandemics
title_short Some Dissimilarity Measures of Branching Processes and Optimal Decision Making in the Presence of Potential Pandemics
title_sort some dissimilarity measures of branching processes and optimal decision making in the presence of potential pandemics
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7517477/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33286645
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e22080874
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