Prognostic Factors Affecting Short- and Long-Term Recurrence-Free Survival of Patients with Rectal Cancer using Cure Models: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Understanding the prognostic factors affecting the recurrence-free survival (RFS) of patients with rectal cancer (RC) is the mainstay of care. The present study aimed to identify factors affecting both short- and long-term RFS of patients with RC using semiparametric mixture cure models. METHODS: The data were obtained from the database of the Colorectal Research Center of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran, which was collected during 2007-2017. To determine the factors affecting recurrence, cure models were applied to short-term and long-term RFS of patients with RC separately. The cure rate was calculated using the smcure package in R 3.5.1 (2018-07-02) software. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Out of the 376 eligible patients with RC, 75.8% of men and 74.5% of women were long-term survivors. The mean age of the patients was 57.0±13.8 years. Lymph node ratio (LNR)≤0.2 increased the probability of short-term RFS. The prominent factors affecting long-term RFS were body mass index (BMI)<25 kg/m(2) (OR=1.98, P=0.047), tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage (OR=6.48, P<0.001), abdominal pain (OR=2.15, P=0.007), and computed tomography (CT) scan detected pelvic lymph nodes (OR=3.40, P=0.01). Over a 9-year follow-up period, the empirical and estimated values of cure rates were 75.3% and 83.9%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results showed that factors affecting short-term RFS might be different from long-term RFS. A lower BMI was related to a poorer prognosis in patients with RC. Early diagnosis leads to a lower TNM stage and could increase the probability of long-term RFS.