Predicting Prognosis and Adverse Events by Hematologic Markers in Patients with Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Treated with Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

PURPOSE: Our purpose was to evaluate the association between hematologic markers and mortality and adverse events in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 311 patients with ESCC treated with nCRT from 2012 to 2014 were enrolled retrospectively. The Kaplan–Meier method with a Log rank test was used to calculate five-year overall survival (OS). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to determine the cut-off values for hematologic markers. Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox regression analysis model. Model performance was evaluated by predicted nomogram, concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 22 months. High pretreatment platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR, p = 0.047) and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII, p = 0.027) were significantly associated with pathologic complete response (pCR). In multivariate analysis, smoking history, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, invasion depth, lymph node metastasis, PLR, and SII were independent factors to predict five-year OS. Multivariate analysis showed a lower neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) at baseline (p = 0.007) was significantly associated with development of grade ≥3 hematologic toxicity, and none of inflammatory biomarkers could predict grade ≥3 non-hematologic toxicity or radiation pneumonitis (RP). CONCLUSION: SII and PLR were independent indicators to predict prognosis in patients with ESCC treated with nCRT, and a lower NLR at baseline was an independent indicator to predict grade ≥3 hematologic toxicity.