COVID-19 in the United States: Trajectories and second surge behavior

This paper introduces a mathematical framework for determining second surge behavior of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Within this framework, a flexible algorithmic approach selects a set of turning points for each state, computes distances between them, and determines whether each state is in...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: James, Nick, Menzies, Max
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: AIP Publishing LLC 2020
Materias:
Fast Track
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7519449/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33003920
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0024204
Descripción
Sumario:This paper introduces a mathematical framework for determining second surge behavior of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Within this framework, a flexible algorithmic approach selects a set of turning points for each state, computes distances between them, and determines whether each state is in (or over) a first or second surge. Then, appropriate distances between normalized time series are used to further analyze the relationships between case trajectories on a month-by-month basis. Our algorithm shows that 31 states are experiencing second surges, while four of the 10 largest states are still in their first surge, with case counts that have never decreased. This analysis can aid in highlighting the most and least successful state responses to COVID-19.

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