Evolutionary dynamics and transmission patterns of Newcastle disease virus in China through Bayesian phylogeographical analysis

The Chinese poultry industry has experienced outbreaks of Newcastle disease (ND) dating back to the 1920s. However, the epidemic has exhibited a downtrend in recent years. In this study, both observational and genetic data [fusion (F) and haemagglutinin-neuraminidase genes (HN)] were analyzed, and phylogeographic analysis based on prevalent genotypes of Newcastle disease virus (NDV) was conducted for better understanding of the evolution and spatiotemporal dynamics of ND in China. In line with the observed trend of epidemic outbreaks, the effective population size of F and HN genes of circulating NDV is no longer growing since 2000, which is supported by 95% highest posterior diversity (HPD) intervals. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that the two eastern coastal provinces, Shandong and Jiangsu were the most relevant hubs for NDV migration, and the geographical regions with active NDV diffusion seemed to be constrained to southern and eastern China. The live poultry trade may play an important role in viral spread. Interestingly, no migration links from wild birds to poultry received Bayes factor support (BF > 3), while the migration links from poultry to wild birds accounted for 64% in all effective migrations. This may indicate that the sporadic cases of ND in wild bird likely spillover events from poultry. These findings contribute to predictive models of NDV transmission, and potentially help in the prevention of future outbreaks.