Potential for cervical cancer incidence and death resulting from Japan’s current policy of prolonged suspension of its governmental recommendation of the HPV vaccine

In 2013, recurrent reports of diverse symptoms occurring in girls after receiving HPV vaccination appeared in Japanese media. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare quickly responded by announcing a temporary suspension of its recommendation for the vaccine. The HPV vaccination rate soon fell to almost zero. In the present study, we calculated the potential future numbers of cervical cancer incidence and death that will be increased by this policy decision. We have assumed that the number of yearly vaccinations is evenly distributed across a daily basis. Future incidence and death increased in females born in FY2000 are estimated to be 3651 and 904, respectively, 4566 and 1130 for those born in FY2001, 4645 and 1150 for those born in FY2002, and 4657 and 1153 for those born in FY2003. In FY2020, the large increase of risks to females born in FY2004 amounts to 12.0 females per day who will now be at a higher risk for acquiring of cervical cancer in their future, and 3.0 females per day newly at risk for future death from that disease in its progressive form. No one should be able to accept this situation. We sincerely ask the government to resume its recommendation for the vaccine as soon as possible.