Heterogeneity of antidiabetic treatment effect on the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: We explored whether clinically relevant baseline characteristics of patients with type 2 diabetes can modify the effect of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) or sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i) on the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). METHODS: We investigated Medline and EMBASE through June 2019. We included randomized clinical trials reporting the effect of GLP-1 RA or SGLT-2i on MACE in subgroups of patients with type 2 diabetes, identified through key baseline factors: established cardiovascular disease; heart failure; chronic kidney disease; uncontrolled diabetes; duration of diabetes; hypertension; obesity; age; gender and race. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from trials were meta-analyzed using random-effects models. RESULTS: Ten trials enrolling 89,790 patients were included in the analyses. Subgroup meta-analyses showed a 14% risk reduction of MACE in patients with established cardiovascular disease [GLP1-RA: HR, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.80–0.93); SGLT-2i: 0.86 (0.80–0.93)], and no effect in at-risk patients without history of cardiovascular events [GLP1-RA: 0.94 (0.82–1.07); SGLT-2i: 1.00 (0.87–1.16)]. We observed a trend toward larger treatment benefits with SGLT-2i among patients with chronic kidney disease [0.82 (0.69–0.97)], and patients with uncontrolled diabetes for both GLP1-RA or SGLT-2i [GLP1-RA: 0.82 (0.71–0.95); SGLT-2i: 0.84 (0.75–0.95)]. Uncontrolled hypertension, obesity, gender, age and race did not appear to modify the effect of these drugs. CONCLUSIONS: In this exploratory analysis, history of cardiovascular disease appeared to modify the treatment effect of SGLT2i or GLP1-RA on MACE. Chronic kidney disease and uncontrolled diabetes should be further investigated as potential effect modifiers.