Prognostic Value of Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) Score in Critically Ill Patients with Cirrhosis and ACLF

BACKGROUND: In the intensive care unit (ICU), critically ill patients with cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) continue to have high mortality rates. The AARC ACLF score is a simple, newly-developed score based on Asian ACLF patients, which performs well in prognosis. The present study attempted to verify the prognostic ability of AARC ACLF in non-Asian critically ill patients with cirrhosis and ACLF. MATERIAL/METHODS: We enrolled 786 patients. Relevant clinical data were collected within 24 h after admission to compare the differences between survivors and non-survivors, and all the patients were followed up for at least 180 days. RESULTS: The 28-day, 90-day, and 180-day mortality rates were 28.9% (227/786), 36.4% (286/786), and 40.3% (317/786), respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that AARC ACLF score (HR: 1.375, 95% CI: 1.247–1.516, P<0.001) was an independent predictive factor of 28-day mortality, and the AUROC of the predictive ability in 28-day mortality of the AARC ACLF score was 0.754. In addition, the AARC ACLF score was regraded into 3 classes (low risk: AARC ACLF <9, intermediate risk: 9≤ AARC ACLF <12, and high risk: AARC ACLF ≥12). The AARC ACLF score can be used for dynamic assessment by retest at days 4–7. CONCLUSIONS: The AARC ACLF score has a good predictive value for 28-day, 90-day, and 180-day mortality in non-Asian critically ill patients with cirrhosis and ACLF, which is not inferior to CLIF-C ACLFs(Lact) and other models. It is easy to use at bedside, and it is dynamic and reliable.