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Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020

BACKGROUND: The state of Ceará (Northeast Brazil) has shown a high incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and most of the cases that were diagnosed during the epidemic originated from the capital Fortaleza. Monitoring the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic is of strategic importance and require...

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Autores principales: Braga, Jose Ueleres, Ramos, Alberto Novaes, Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes, Lacerda, Victor Macêdo, Freire, Renan Monteiro Carioca, Bertoncini, Bruno Vieira
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7527297/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32998719
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09558-9
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author Braga, Jose Ueleres
Ramos, Alberto Novaes
Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes
Lacerda, Victor Macêdo
Freire, Renan Monteiro Carioca
Bertoncini, Bruno Vieira
author_facet Braga, Jose Ueleres
Ramos, Alberto Novaes
Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes
Lacerda, Victor Macêdo
Freire, Renan Monteiro Carioca
Bertoncini, Bruno Vieira
author_sort Braga, Jose Ueleres
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The state of Ceará (Northeast Brazil) has shown a high incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and most of the cases that were diagnosed during the epidemic originated from the capital Fortaleza. Monitoring the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic is of strategic importance and requires the use of sensitive tools for epidemiological surveillance, including consistent analyses that allow the recognition of areas with a greater propensity for increased severity throughout the cycle of the epidemic. This study aims to classify neighborhoods in the city of Fortaleza according to their propensity for a severe epidemic of COVID-19 in 2020. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study within the geographical area of the 119 neighborhoods located in the city of Fortaleza. To define the main transmission networks (infection chains), we assumed that the spatial diffusion of the COVID-19 epidemic was influenced by population mobility. To measure the propensity for a severe epidemic, we calculated the infectivity burden (I(ty)B), infection burden (I(on)B), and population epidemic vulnerability index (PEVI). The propensity score for a severe epidemic in the neighborhoods of the city of Fortaleza was estimated by combining the I(on)B and PEVI. RESULTS: The neighborhoods with the highest propensity for a severe COVID-19 epidemic were Aldeota, Cais do Porto, Centro, Edson Queiroz, Vicente Pinzon, Jose de Alencar, Presidente Kennedy, Papicu, Vila Velha, Antonio Bezerra, and Cambeba. Importantly, we found that the propensity for a COVID-19 epidemic was high in areas with differing socioeconomic profiles. These areas include a very poor neighborhood situated on the western border of the city (Vila Velha), neighborhoods characterized by a large number of subnormal agglomerates in the Cais do Porto region (Vicente Pinzon), and those located in the oldest central area of the city, where despite the wealth, low-income groups have remained (Aldeota and the adjacent Edson Queiroz). CONCLUSION: Although measures against COVID-19 should be applied to the entire municipality of Fortaleza, the classification of neighborhoods generated through this study can help improve the specificity and efficiency of these measures.
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spelling pubmed-75272972020-10-01 Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020 Braga, Jose Ueleres Ramos, Alberto Novaes Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes Lacerda, Victor Macêdo Freire, Renan Monteiro Carioca Bertoncini, Bruno Vieira BMC Public Health Research Article BACKGROUND: The state of Ceará (Northeast Brazil) has shown a high incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and most of the cases that were diagnosed during the epidemic originated from the capital Fortaleza. Monitoring the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic is of strategic importance and requires the use of sensitive tools for epidemiological surveillance, including consistent analyses that allow the recognition of areas with a greater propensity for increased severity throughout the cycle of the epidemic. This study aims to classify neighborhoods in the city of Fortaleza according to their propensity for a severe epidemic of COVID-19 in 2020. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study within the geographical area of the 119 neighborhoods located in the city of Fortaleza. To define the main transmission networks (infection chains), we assumed that the spatial diffusion of the COVID-19 epidemic was influenced by population mobility. To measure the propensity for a severe epidemic, we calculated the infectivity burden (I(ty)B), infection burden (I(on)B), and population epidemic vulnerability index (PEVI). The propensity score for a severe epidemic in the neighborhoods of the city of Fortaleza was estimated by combining the I(on)B and PEVI. RESULTS: The neighborhoods with the highest propensity for a severe COVID-19 epidemic were Aldeota, Cais do Porto, Centro, Edson Queiroz, Vicente Pinzon, Jose de Alencar, Presidente Kennedy, Papicu, Vila Velha, Antonio Bezerra, and Cambeba. Importantly, we found that the propensity for a COVID-19 epidemic was high in areas with differing socioeconomic profiles. These areas include a very poor neighborhood situated on the western border of the city (Vila Velha), neighborhoods characterized by a large number of subnormal agglomerates in the Cais do Porto region (Vicente Pinzon), and those located in the oldest central area of the city, where despite the wealth, low-income groups have remained (Aldeota and the adjacent Edson Queiroz). CONCLUSION: Although measures against COVID-19 should be applied to the entire municipality of Fortaleza, the classification of neighborhoods generated through this study can help improve the specificity and efficiency of these measures. BioMed Central 2020-10-01 /pmc/articles/PMC7527297/ /pubmed/32998719 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09558-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research Article
Braga, Jose Ueleres
Ramos, Alberto Novaes
Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes
Lacerda, Victor Macêdo
Freire, Renan Monteiro Carioca
Bertoncini, Bruno Vieira
Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
title Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
title_full Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
title_fullStr Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
title_full_unstemmed Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
title_short Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
title_sort propensity for covid-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of fortaleza, brazil, in 2020
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7527297/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32998719
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09558-9
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