Predictors of inpatient mortality among children hospitalized for severe acute malnutrition: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition underlies 45% of under-5 deaths globally. Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is the most serious form of undernutrition, characterized by wasting with or without edema. Mortality remains high (10%–40%) among children requiring hospitalization for complicated SAM. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to systematically document the factors independently associated with inpatient mortality in children with SAM. METHODS: Embase, Ovid MEDINE, the Cochrane Library, and clinicaltrials.gov were searched for articles published between January 2000 and January 2020, using a prespecified protocol. Eligible studies included children aged ≤59 mo hospitalized with SAM and used multivariable analysis to assess the baseline factors independently associated with inpatient mortality. Random-effects meta-analysis, stratified by the stated measure of effect, was used where >20% of studies included the same factor in analyses. RESULTS: Twenty-eight of 1432 studies fulfilled inclusion criteria: 19 studies included all children with SAM and 9 included specific subgroups of children with SAM. All 19 main studies were from 8 countries across Africa, with a median of 400 children/study. The mean inpatient mortality was 15.7% (95% CI: 10.4%, 21.0%) and HIV prevalence ranged from 2.1% to 51%. Nine factors were included in the meta-analysis, stratified by HR and OR. HIV infection (HR: 4.32; 95% CI: 2.31, 8.08), weight-for-height z score (WHZ) (OR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.24, 0.80), diarrhea (HR: 2.84; 95% CI: 1.40, 5.75), pneumonia (HR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.19, 3.02), presence of shock (HR: 3.67; 95% CI: 2.24, 6.03), and lack of appetite (HR: 2.16; 95% CI: 1.48, 3.16) were associated with increased mortality, whereas child age and sex were not. The association between edema and mortality was difficult to ascertain from the available studies. CONCLUSIONS: HIV infection, diarrhea, pneumonia, shock, lack of appetite, and lower WHZ are independent predictors of inpatient mortality in children with SAM. These factors may help to risk-stratify children being hospitalized with complicated SAM. This systematic review/meta-analysis protocol was registered at www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero as CRD42019152267.