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Fokker–Planck dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

The asymmetric nature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored by using a probabilistic model (PROM) for ENSO. Based on a Fokker–Planck Equation (FPE), PROM describes the dynamics of a nonlinear stochastic ENSO recharge oscillator model for eastern equatorial Pacific temperature anomal...

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Autores principales: An, Soon-Il, Kim, Soong-Ki, Timmermann, Axel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7529818/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33004972
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-73449-7
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author An, Soon-Il
Kim, Soong-Ki
Timmermann, Axel
author_facet An, Soon-Il
Kim, Soong-Ki
Timmermann, Axel
author_sort An, Soon-Il
collection PubMed
description The asymmetric nature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored by using a probabilistic model (PROM) for ENSO. Based on a Fokker–Planck Equation (FPE), PROM describes the dynamics of a nonlinear stochastic ENSO recharge oscillator model for eastern equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies and equatorial Pacific basin-averaged thermocline depth changes. Eigen analyses of PROM provide new insights into the stationary and oscillatory solutions of the stochastic dynamical system. The first probabilistic eigenmode represents a stationary mode, which exhibits the asymmetric features of ENSO, in case deterministic nonlinearities or multiplicative noises are included. The second mode is linked to the oscillatory nature of ENSO and represents a cyclic asymmetric probability distribution, which emerges from the key dynamical processes. Other eigenmodes are associated with the temporal evolution of higher order statistical moments of the ENSO system. The model solutions demonstrate that the deterministic nonlinearity plays a stronger role in establishing the observed asymmetry of ENSO as compared to the multiplicative stochastic part.
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spelling pubmed-75298182020-10-02 Fokker–Planck dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation An, Soon-Il Kim, Soong-Ki Timmermann, Axel Sci Rep Article The asymmetric nature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored by using a probabilistic model (PROM) for ENSO. Based on a Fokker–Planck Equation (FPE), PROM describes the dynamics of a nonlinear stochastic ENSO recharge oscillator model for eastern equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies and equatorial Pacific basin-averaged thermocline depth changes. Eigen analyses of PROM provide new insights into the stationary and oscillatory solutions of the stochastic dynamical system. The first probabilistic eigenmode represents a stationary mode, which exhibits the asymmetric features of ENSO, in case deterministic nonlinearities or multiplicative noises are included. The second mode is linked to the oscillatory nature of ENSO and represents a cyclic asymmetric probability distribution, which emerges from the key dynamical processes. Other eigenmodes are associated with the temporal evolution of higher order statistical moments of the ENSO system. The model solutions demonstrate that the deterministic nonlinearity plays a stronger role in establishing the observed asymmetry of ENSO as compared to the multiplicative stochastic part. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-10-01 /pmc/articles/PMC7529818/ /pubmed/33004972 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-73449-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
An, Soon-Il
Kim, Soong-Ki
Timmermann, Axel
Fokker–Planck dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
title Fokker–Planck dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
title_full Fokker–Planck dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
title_fullStr Fokker–Planck dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
title_full_unstemmed Fokker–Planck dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
title_short Fokker–Planck dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
title_sort fokker–planck dynamics of the el niño-southern oscillation
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7529818/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33004972
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-73449-7
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