Spatio-temporal modeling of visceral leishmaniasis in Midwest Brazil: An ecological study of 18-years data (2001–2018)

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected vector-borne disease associated with socioeconomic and environmental issues. In Brazil, epidemics of VL have occurred in major cities since 1980. Applied models for medical and epidemiological research have been used to assess the distribution and characteristics of disease endpoints and identify and characterize potential risk factors. This study described the demographic features of VL and modeled the spatio-temporal distribution of human VL cases and their relationship with underlying predicitve factors using generalized additive models. We conducted an ecological study covering an 18-year period from the first report of an autochthonous case of VL in Campo Grande, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, in 2001 to 2018. The urban area of the city has 74 neighborhoods, and they were the units of analysis of our work. Socioeconomic and demographic data available from Brazilian public databases were considered as covariables. A total of 1,855 VL cases were reported during the study period, with an annual mean incidence rate of 13.23 cases per 100,000 population and a cumulative crude incidence of 235.77 per 100,000 population. The results showed the rapid transition from epidemic to endemic and the centrifugal dispersal pattern of the disease. Moreover, the model highlighted that the urban quality of life index, which is calculated based on income, education, housing conditions, and environmental sanitation data, plays a role in VL occurrence. Our findings highlighted the potential for improving spatio-temporal segmentation of control measures and the cost-effectiveness of integrated disease management programs as soon as VL is difficult to control and prevent and has rapid geographical dispersion and increased incidence rates.