Modeling the dynamics of the COVID-19 population in Australia: A probabilistic analysis

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Eshragh, Ali, Alizamir, Saed, Howley, Peter, Stojanovski, Elizabeth
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7531857/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33007054
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240153
Descripción
Sumario:The novel coronavirus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be used to guide government decision-making on societal restrictions on a daily and/or weekly basis. The “partially-observable stochastic process” used in this study predicts not only the future actual values with extremely low error, but also the percentage of unobserved COVID-19 cases in the population. The model can further assist policy makers to assess the effectiveness of several possible alternative scenarios in their decision-making processes.

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