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Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling

Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interprete...

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Autores principales: Wang, Huanjiong, Wu, Chaoyang, Ciais, Philippe, Peñuelas, Josep, Dai, Junhu, Fu, Yongshuo, Ge, Quansheng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7532433/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33009378
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18743-8
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author Wang, Huanjiong
Wu, Chaoyang
Ciais, Philippe
Peñuelas, Josep
Dai, Junhu
Fu, Yongshuo
Ge, Quansheng
author_facet Wang, Huanjiong
Wu, Chaoyang
Ciais, Philippe
Peñuelas, Josep
Dai, Junhu
Fu, Yongshuo
Ge, Quansheng
author_sort Wang, Huanjiong
collection PubMed
description Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interpreted in ecosystem models remains unknown. Using leaf unfolding and flowering data for 30 perennials in Europe, here we show that more than half (7 of 12) of current chilling models are invalid since they show a positive CA-HR relationship. The possible reason is that they overlook the effect of freezing temperature on dormancy release. Overestimation of the advance in spring phenology by the end of this century by these invalid chilling models could be as large as 7.6 and 20.0 days under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of chilling for the correct understanding of spring phenological responses to future climate change.
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spelling pubmed-75324332020-10-19 Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling Wang, Huanjiong Wu, Chaoyang Ciais, Philippe Peñuelas, Josep Dai, Junhu Fu, Yongshuo Ge, Quansheng Nat Commun Article Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interpreted in ecosystem models remains unknown. Using leaf unfolding and flowering data for 30 perennials in Europe, here we show that more than half (7 of 12) of current chilling models are invalid since they show a positive CA-HR relationship. The possible reason is that they overlook the effect of freezing temperature on dormancy release. Overestimation of the advance in spring phenology by the end of this century by these invalid chilling models could be as large as 7.6 and 20.0 days under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of chilling for the correct understanding of spring phenological responses to future climate change. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-10-02 /pmc/articles/PMC7532433/ /pubmed/33009378 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18743-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Wang, Huanjiong
Wu, Chaoyang
Ciais, Philippe
Peñuelas, Josep
Dai, Junhu
Fu, Yongshuo
Ge, Quansheng
Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling
title Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling
title_full Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling
title_fullStr Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling
title_full_unstemmed Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling
title_short Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling
title_sort overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7532433/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33009378
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18743-8
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