Mortality prognostication scores do not predict long-term, health-related quality of life after burn: A burn model system national database study

OBJECTIVE: Despite improved mortality rates after burn injury, many patients face significant long-term physical and psychosocial disabilities. We aimed to determine whether commonly used mortality prognostication scores predict long-term, health-related quality of life after burn injury. By doing so, we might add evidence to support goals of care discussions and facilitate shared decision-making efforts in the hours and days after a life-changing injury. METHODS: We used the multicenter National Institute of Disability, Independent Living and Rehabilitation Research Burn Model System database (1994–2019) to analyze SF-12 physical (PCS) and mental component (MCS) scores among survivors one year after major burn injury. Ninety percent of the observations were randomly assigned to a model development dataset. Multilevel, mixed-effects, linear regression models determined the relationship between revised Baux and Ryan Scores and SF-12 measures. Additionally, we tested a model with disaggregated independent and other covariates easily obtained around the time of index admission: age, sex, race, burn size, inhalation injury. Residuals from the remaining 10% of observations in the validation dataset were examined. RESULTS: The analysis included 1606 respondents (median age 42 years, IQR 28–53 years; 70% male). Median burn size was 16% TBSA (IQR 6–30) and 13% of respondents sustained inhalation injury. Higher revised Baux and Ryan Scores and age, burn size, and inhalation injury were significantly correlated with lower PCS, but were not correlated with MCS. Female sex, black race, burn size, and inhalation injury correlated with lower MCS. All models poorly explained the variance in SF-12 scores (adjusted r(2) 0.01–0.12). CONCLUSION: Higher revised Baux and Ryan Scores negatively correlated with long-term physical health, but not mental health, after burn injury. Regardless, the models poorly explained the variance in SF-12 scores one year after injury. More accurate models are needed to predict long-term, health-related quality of life and support shared decision-making during acute burn care.