The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters

Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than covid-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that genera...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Flyvbjerg, Bent
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Discussion
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7533687/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33041651
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.08.013
Descripción
Sumario:Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than covid-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that generate such extreme risk, and for navigating it, for government, business, and the public?

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