The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters

Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than covid-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that genera...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Flyvbjerg, Bent
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Discussion
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7533687/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33041651
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.08.013
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description Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than covid-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that generate such extreme risk, and for navigating it, for government, business, and the public?
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spelling pubmed-75336872020-10-05 The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters Flyvbjerg, Bent Environ Sci Policy Discussion Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than covid-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that generate such extreme risk, and for navigating it, for government, business, and the public? Elsevier Ltd. 2020-12 2020-10-05 /pmc/articles/PMC7533687/ /pubmed/33041651 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.08.013 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Discussion
Flyvbjerg, Bent
The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters
title The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters
title_full The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters
title_fullStr The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters
title_full_unstemmed The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters
title_short The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters
title_sort law of regression to the tail: how to survive covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters
topic Discussion
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7533687/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33041651
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.08.013
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