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Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5

A key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show...

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Autores principales: Rising, James, Devineni, Naresh
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7536391/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33020479
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18725-w
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author Rising, James
Devineni, Naresh
author_facet Rising, James
Devineni, Naresh
author_sort Rising, James
collection PubMed
description A key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show that it outperforms traditional empirical models under cross-validation. The fitted model parameters provide evidence of considerable existing climate adaptation across counties. If crop locations are held constant in the future, total agriculture profits for the six crops will drop by 31% for the temperature patterns of 2070 under RCP 8.5. When crop lands are reallocated to avoid yield decreases and take advantage of yield increases, half of these losses are avoided (16% loss), but 57% of counties are allocated crops different from those currently planted. Our results provide a framework for identifying crop adaptation opportunities, but suggest limits to their potential.
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spelling pubmed-75363912020-10-19 Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5 Rising, James Devineni, Naresh Nat Commun Article A key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show that it outperforms traditional empirical models under cross-validation. The fitted model parameters provide evidence of considerable existing climate adaptation across counties. If crop locations are held constant in the future, total agriculture profits for the six crops will drop by 31% for the temperature patterns of 2070 under RCP 8.5. When crop lands are reallocated to avoid yield decreases and take advantage of yield increases, half of these losses are avoided (16% loss), but 57% of counties are allocated crops different from those currently planted. Our results provide a framework for identifying crop adaptation opportunities, but suggest limits to their potential. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-10-05 /pmc/articles/PMC7536391/ /pubmed/33020479 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18725-w Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Rising, James
Devineni, Naresh
Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5
title Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5
title_full Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5
title_fullStr Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5
title_full_unstemmed Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5
title_short Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5
title_sort crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the united states by half under rcp 8.5
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7536391/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33020479
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18725-w
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