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The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis
BACKGROUND: Mayaro virus (Togaviridae) is an endemic arbovirus of the Americas with epidemiological similarities with the agents of other more prominent diseases such as dengue (Flaviviridae), Zika (Flaviviridae), and chikungunya (Togaviridae). It is naturally transmitted in a sylvatic/rural cycle b...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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BioMed Central
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7542739/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33032645 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-020-04354-1 |
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author | Valencia-Marín, Bryan Steven Gandica, Irene Duarte Aguirre-Obando, Oscar Alexander |
author_facet | Valencia-Marín, Bryan Steven Gandica, Irene Duarte Aguirre-Obando, Oscar Alexander |
author_sort | Valencia-Marín, Bryan Steven |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Mayaro virus (Togaviridae) is an endemic arbovirus of the Americas with epidemiological similarities with the agents of other more prominent diseases such as dengue (Flaviviridae), Zika (Flaviviridae), and chikungunya (Togaviridae). It is naturally transmitted in a sylvatic/rural cycle by Haemagogus spp., but, potentially, it could be incorporated and transmitted in an urban cycle by Aedes aegypti, a vector widely disseminated in the Americas. METHODS: The Mayaro arbovirus dynamics was simulated mathematically in the colombian population in the eight biogeographical provinces, bearing in mind the vector’s population movement between provinces through passive transport via truck cargo. The parameters involved in the virus epidemiological dynamics, as well as the vital rates of Ae. aegypti in each of the biogeographical provinces were obtained from the literature. These data were included in a meta-population model in differential equations, represented by a model structured by age for the dynamic population of Ae. aegypti combined with an epidemiological SEI/SEIR-type model. In addition, the model was incorporated with a term of migration to represent the connectivity between the biogeographical provinces. RESULTS: The vital rates and the development cycle of Ae. aegypti varied between provinces, having greater biological potential between 23 °C and 28 °C in provinces of Imerí, biogeographical Chocó, and Magdalena, with respect to the North-Andean Moorland (9.33–21.38 °C). Magdalena and Maracaibo had the highest flow of land cargo. The results of the simulations indicate that Magdalena, Imerí, and biogeographical Chocó would be the most affected regarding the number of cases of people infected by Mayaro virus over time. CONCLUSIONS: The temperature in each of the provinces influences the local population dynamics of Ae. aegypti and passive migration via transport of land cargo plays an important role on how the Mayaro virus would be disseminated in the human population. Once this arbovirus begins an urban cycle, the most-affected departments would be Antioquia, Santander, Norte de Santander, Cesar (Provinces of Magdalena), and Valle del Cauca, and Chocó (biogeographical province of Chocó), which is why vector control programmes must aim their efforts at these departments and include some type of vector control to the transport of land cargo to avoid a future Mayaro epidemic. [Image: see text] |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7542739 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-75427392020-10-08 The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis Valencia-Marín, Bryan Steven Gandica, Irene Duarte Aguirre-Obando, Oscar Alexander Parasit Vectors Research BACKGROUND: Mayaro virus (Togaviridae) is an endemic arbovirus of the Americas with epidemiological similarities with the agents of other more prominent diseases such as dengue (Flaviviridae), Zika (Flaviviridae), and chikungunya (Togaviridae). It is naturally transmitted in a sylvatic/rural cycle by Haemagogus spp., but, potentially, it could be incorporated and transmitted in an urban cycle by Aedes aegypti, a vector widely disseminated in the Americas. METHODS: The Mayaro arbovirus dynamics was simulated mathematically in the colombian population in the eight biogeographical provinces, bearing in mind the vector’s population movement between provinces through passive transport via truck cargo. The parameters involved in the virus epidemiological dynamics, as well as the vital rates of Ae. aegypti in each of the biogeographical provinces were obtained from the literature. These data were included in a meta-population model in differential equations, represented by a model structured by age for the dynamic population of Ae. aegypti combined with an epidemiological SEI/SEIR-type model. In addition, the model was incorporated with a term of migration to represent the connectivity between the biogeographical provinces. RESULTS: The vital rates and the development cycle of Ae. aegypti varied between provinces, having greater biological potential between 23 °C and 28 °C in provinces of Imerí, biogeographical Chocó, and Magdalena, with respect to the North-Andean Moorland (9.33–21.38 °C). Magdalena and Maracaibo had the highest flow of land cargo. The results of the simulations indicate that Magdalena, Imerí, and biogeographical Chocó would be the most affected regarding the number of cases of people infected by Mayaro virus over time. CONCLUSIONS: The temperature in each of the provinces influences the local population dynamics of Ae. aegypti and passive migration via transport of land cargo plays an important role on how the Mayaro virus would be disseminated in the human population. Once this arbovirus begins an urban cycle, the most-affected departments would be Antioquia, Santander, Norte de Santander, Cesar (Provinces of Magdalena), and Valle del Cauca, and Chocó (biogeographical province of Chocó), which is why vector control programmes must aim their efforts at these departments and include some type of vector control to the transport of land cargo to avoid a future Mayaro epidemic. [Image: see text] BioMed Central 2020-10-08 /pmc/articles/PMC7542739/ /pubmed/33032645 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-020-04354-1 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Valencia-Marín, Bryan Steven Gandica, Irene Duarte Aguirre-Obando, Oscar Alexander The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis |
title | The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis |
title_full | The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis |
title_fullStr | The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis |
title_full_unstemmed | The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis |
title_short | The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis |
title_sort | mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7542739/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33032645 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-020-04354-1 |
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