Modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The case of Ethiopia

A mathematical model to estimate transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is developed. A real data of confirmed cases for Ethiopia is used for parameter estimation via model fitting. Results showed that, the diseases free and endemic equilibrium points are found to be locally and globally asymptotically s...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Deressa, Chernet Tuge, Duressa, Gemechis File
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7546205/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2020.10.004
Descripción
Sumario:A mathematical model to estimate transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is developed. A real data of confirmed cases for Ethiopia is used for parameter estimation via model fitting. Results showed that, the diseases free and endemic equilibrium points are found to be locally and globally asymptotically stable for R(o) < 1 and R(o) > 1 respectively. The basic reproduction number is R(o) = 1.5085. Optimal control analysis also showed that, combination of optimal preventive strategies such as public health education, personal protective measures and treatment of hospitalized cases are effective to significantly decrease the number of COVID-19 cases in different compartments of the model.

Ejemplares similares