Modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The case of Ethiopia

A mathematical model to estimate transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is developed. A real data of confirmed cases for Ethiopia is used for parameter estimation via model fitting. Results showed that, the diseases free and endemic equilibrium points are found to be locally and globally asymptotically s...

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Autores principales: Deressa, Chernet Tuge, Duressa, Gemechis File
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7546205/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2020.10.004
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author Deressa, Chernet Tuge
Duressa, Gemechis File
author_facet Deressa, Chernet Tuge
Duressa, Gemechis File
author_sort Deressa, Chernet Tuge
collection PubMed
description A mathematical model to estimate transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is developed. A real data of confirmed cases for Ethiopia is used for parameter estimation via model fitting. Results showed that, the diseases free and endemic equilibrium points are found to be locally and globally asymptotically stable for R(o) < 1 and R(o) > 1 respectively. The basic reproduction number is R(o) = 1.5085. Optimal control analysis also showed that, combination of optimal preventive strategies such as public health education, personal protective measures and treatment of hospitalized cases are effective to significantly decrease the number of COVID-19 cases in different compartments of the model.
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spelling pubmed-75462052020-10-13 Modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The case of Ethiopia Deressa, Chernet Tuge Duressa, Gemechis File Alexandria Engineering Journal Article A mathematical model to estimate transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is developed. A real data of confirmed cases for Ethiopia is used for parameter estimation via model fitting. Results showed that, the diseases free and endemic equilibrium points are found to be locally and globally asymptotically stable for R(o) < 1 and R(o) > 1 respectively. The basic reproduction number is R(o) = 1.5085. Optimal control analysis also showed that, combination of optimal preventive strategies such as public health education, personal protective measures and treatment of hospitalized cases are effective to significantly decrease the number of COVID-19 cases in different compartments of the model. The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. 2021-02 2020-10-09 /pmc/articles/PMC7546205/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2020.10.004 Text en © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Deressa, Chernet Tuge
Duressa, Gemechis File
Modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The case of Ethiopia
title Modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The case of Ethiopia
title_full Modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The case of Ethiopia
title_fullStr Modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The case of Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed Modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The case of Ethiopia
title_short Modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The case of Ethiopia
title_sort modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of covid-19: the case of ethiopia
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7546205/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2020.10.004
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