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Enhancing the Wisdom of the Crowd With Cognitive-Process Diversity: The Benefits of Aggregating Intuitive and Analytical Judgments
Drawing on dual-process theory, we suggest that the benefits that arise from combining several quantitative individual judgments will be heightened when these judgments are based on different cognitive processes. We tested this hypothesis in three experimental studies in which participants provided...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
SAGE Publications
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7549292/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32960747 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0956797620941840 |
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author | Keck, Steffen Tang, Wenjie |
author_facet | Keck, Steffen Tang, Wenjie |
author_sort | Keck, Steffen |
collection | PubMed |
description | Drawing on dual-process theory, we suggest that the benefits that arise from combining several quantitative individual judgments will be heightened when these judgments are based on different cognitive processes. We tested this hypothesis in three experimental studies in which participants provided estimates for the dates of different historical events (Study 1, N = 152), made probabilistic forecasts for the outcomes of soccer games (Study 2, N = 98), and estimated the weight of individuals on the basis of a photograph (Study 3, N = 3,695). For each of these tasks, participants were prompted to make judgments relying on an analytical process, on their intuition, or (in a control condition) on no specific instructions. Across all three studies, our results show that an aggregation of intuitive and analytical judgments provides more accurate estimates than any other aggregation procedure and that this advantage increases with the number of aggregated judgments. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7549292 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | SAGE Publications |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-75492922020-10-30 Enhancing the Wisdom of the Crowd With Cognitive-Process Diversity: The Benefits of Aggregating Intuitive and Analytical Judgments Keck, Steffen Tang, Wenjie Psychol Sci General Articles Drawing on dual-process theory, we suggest that the benefits that arise from combining several quantitative individual judgments will be heightened when these judgments are based on different cognitive processes. We tested this hypothesis in three experimental studies in which participants provided estimates for the dates of different historical events (Study 1, N = 152), made probabilistic forecasts for the outcomes of soccer games (Study 2, N = 98), and estimated the weight of individuals on the basis of a photograph (Study 3, N = 3,695). For each of these tasks, participants were prompted to make judgments relying on an analytical process, on their intuition, or (in a control condition) on no specific instructions. Across all three studies, our results show that an aggregation of intuitive and analytical judgments provides more accurate estimates than any other aggregation procedure and that this advantage increases with the number of aggregated judgments. SAGE Publications 2020-09-22 2020-10 /pmc/articles/PMC7549292/ /pubmed/32960747 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0956797620941840 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage). |
spellingShingle | General Articles Keck, Steffen Tang, Wenjie Enhancing the Wisdom of the Crowd With Cognitive-Process Diversity: The Benefits of Aggregating Intuitive and Analytical Judgments |
title | Enhancing the Wisdom of the Crowd With Cognitive-Process Diversity:
The Benefits of Aggregating Intuitive and Analytical Judgments |
title_full | Enhancing the Wisdom of the Crowd With Cognitive-Process Diversity:
The Benefits of Aggregating Intuitive and Analytical Judgments |
title_fullStr | Enhancing the Wisdom of the Crowd With Cognitive-Process Diversity:
The Benefits of Aggregating Intuitive and Analytical Judgments |
title_full_unstemmed | Enhancing the Wisdom of the Crowd With Cognitive-Process Diversity:
The Benefits of Aggregating Intuitive and Analytical Judgments |
title_short | Enhancing the Wisdom of the Crowd With Cognitive-Process Diversity:
The Benefits of Aggregating Intuitive and Analytical Judgments |
title_sort | enhancing the wisdom of the crowd with cognitive-process diversity:
the benefits of aggregating intuitive and analytical judgments |
topic | General Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7549292/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32960747 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0956797620941840 |
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