Predicting Liver Fibrosis in the Hepatitis C Population: Concordance Analysis Between Noninvasive Scoring Systems and Percutaneous Liver Biopsy

Background Due to the slow progression of many chronic liver diseases, including hepatitis C, it is not practical or safe to monitor disease progression by serial liver biopsies. Noninvasive laboratory scoring systems based on routine laboratory tests are appealing surrogate markers of liver fibrosis for the staging and monitoring of chronic liver diseases such as hepatitis C. Methods We explored the accuracy of three scoring systems: the fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4), the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI score), and the aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR) in 496 patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who had undergone percutaneous liver biopsy at a viral hepatitis clinic in Shreveport, Louisiana. Results For FIB-4, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for hepatic fibrosis stages ≥ 1, ≥ 2, ≥ 3, and 4 (cirrhosis) ranged from 0.74 (95% CI, 0.678 - 0.802) to 0.802 (95% CI, 0.751 - 0.854). At a cutoff value of 1.45, FIB-4 was 82% sensitive for advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis (stage 3 or 4) but was only 58% specific for these findings. Increasing the FIB-4 cutoff value to 3.25 reduced the sensitivity for detecting advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis to 39%, but this higher cutoff was 92% specific for these findings. Corresponding AUROCs for the APRI and AAR scores were inferior to FIB-4. Conclusion The FIB-4 index outperformed APRI and AAR in our HCV infected population in predicting severe fibrosis or cirrhosis.