Global volatility of public agricultural R&D expenditure

Public investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) is important for global food security and environmental sustainability. Although public agricultural R&D projects are associated with high economic returns, they are characterized by long time horizons and temporal lags. The inherent lag, between when R&D investment takes place and when it comes to fruition, implies that its stability is critical. Existing studies on the stability of public agricultural R&D expenditure are restricted to Sub-Saharan Africa and find evidence of considerable volatility in these expenditures when compared to other developing regions. This chapter extends that analysis to 112 countries by examining the volatility of public agricultural R&D expenditure between 1981 and 2014. We find average global volatility in public agricultural R&D expenditure to be considerable, with the highest levels for Sub-Saharan Africa and the least for South Asia. Although volatility in public agricultural R&D continues to be the highest in low-income countries, it has declined in the 2000s as compared to the previous decade. On the other hand, high-income countries show a steady increase in volatility over time. The co-existence of high R&D volatility with a disproportionately low share in global agricultural R&D for low-income countries is a matter of concern given the adverse impact on agricultural productivity and food security.