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A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Since the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) on March 02, 2020, Saudi Arabia has not reported quite a rapid COVD-19 spread as seen in America and many European countries. Possible causes include the spread of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. To characterize the transmission of COV...

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Autor principal: Alshammari, Fehaid Salem
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Hindawi 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7550901/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33062043
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9136157
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author Alshammari, Fehaid Salem
author_facet Alshammari, Fehaid Salem
author_sort Alshammari, Fehaid Salem
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description Since the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) on March 02, 2020, Saudi Arabia has not reported quite a rapid COVD-19 spread as seen in America and many European countries. Possible causes include the spread of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. To characterize the transmission of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia, a susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, hospitalized, and recovered dynamical model was formulated, and a basic analysis of the model is presented including model positivity, boundedness, and stability around the disease-free equilibrium. It is found that the model is locally and globally stable around the disease-free equilibrium when R(0) < 1. The model parameterized from COVID-19 confirmed cases reported by the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia (MOH) from March 02 till April 14, while some parameters are estimated from the literature. The numerical simulation showed that the model predicted infected curve is in good agreement with the real data of COVID-19-infected cases. An analytical expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) is obtained, and the numerical value is estimated as R(0) ≈ 2.7.
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spelling pubmed-75509012020-10-13 A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Alshammari, Fehaid Salem Comput Math Methods Med Research Article Since the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) on March 02, 2020, Saudi Arabia has not reported quite a rapid COVD-19 spread as seen in America and many European countries. Possible causes include the spread of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. To characterize the transmission of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia, a susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, hospitalized, and recovered dynamical model was formulated, and a basic analysis of the model is presented including model positivity, boundedness, and stability around the disease-free equilibrium. It is found that the model is locally and globally stable around the disease-free equilibrium when R(0) < 1. The model parameterized from COVID-19 confirmed cases reported by the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia (MOH) from March 02 till April 14, while some parameters are estimated from the literature. The numerical simulation showed that the model predicted infected curve is in good agreement with the real data of COVID-19-infected cases. An analytical expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) is obtained, and the numerical value is estimated as R(0) ≈ 2.7. Hindawi 2020-10-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7550901/ /pubmed/33062043 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9136157 Text en Copyright © 2020 Fehaid Salem Alshammari. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Alshammari, Fehaid Salem
A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
title A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
title_full A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
title_fullStr A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
title_full_unstemmed A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
title_short A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
title_sort mathematical model to investigate the transmission of covid-19 in the kingdom of saudi arabia
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7550901/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33062043
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9136157
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