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A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Since the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) on March 02, 2020, Saudi Arabia has not reported quite a rapid COVD-19 spread as seen in America and many European countries. Possible causes include the spread of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. To characterize the transmission of COV...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Hindawi
2020
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7550901/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33062043 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9136157 |
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author | Alshammari, Fehaid Salem |
author_facet | Alshammari, Fehaid Salem |
author_sort | Alshammari, Fehaid Salem |
collection | PubMed |
description | Since the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) on March 02, 2020, Saudi Arabia has not reported quite a rapid COVD-19 spread as seen in America and many European countries. Possible causes include the spread of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. To characterize the transmission of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia, a susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, hospitalized, and recovered dynamical model was formulated, and a basic analysis of the model is presented including model positivity, boundedness, and stability around the disease-free equilibrium. It is found that the model is locally and globally stable around the disease-free equilibrium when R(0) < 1. The model parameterized from COVID-19 confirmed cases reported by the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia (MOH) from March 02 till April 14, while some parameters are estimated from the literature. The numerical simulation showed that the model predicted infected curve is in good agreement with the real data of COVID-19-infected cases. An analytical expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) is obtained, and the numerical value is estimated as R(0) ≈ 2.7. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7550901 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Hindawi |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-75509012020-10-13 A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Alshammari, Fehaid Salem Comput Math Methods Med Research Article Since the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) on March 02, 2020, Saudi Arabia has not reported quite a rapid COVD-19 spread as seen in America and many European countries. Possible causes include the spread of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. To characterize the transmission of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia, a susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, hospitalized, and recovered dynamical model was formulated, and a basic analysis of the model is presented including model positivity, boundedness, and stability around the disease-free equilibrium. It is found that the model is locally and globally stable around the disease-free equilibrium when R(0) < 1. The model parameterized from COVID-19 confirmed cases reported by the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia (MOH) from March 02 till April 14, while some parameters are estimated from the literature. The numerical simulation showed that the model predicted infected curve is in good agreement with the real data of COVID-19-infected cases. An analytical expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) is obtained, and the numerical value is estimated as R(0) ≈ 2.7. Hindawi 2020-10-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7550901/ /pubmed/33062043 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9136157 Text en Copyright © 2020 Fehaid Salem Alshammari. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Alshammari, Fehaid Salem A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
title | A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
title_full | A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
title_fullStr | A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
title_full_unstemmed | A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
title_short | A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
title_sort | mathematical model to investigate the transmission of covid-19 in the kingdom of saudi arabia |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7550901/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33062043 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9136157 |
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