Trajectories of vital status parameters and risk of mortality among acute organophosphorus poisoning patients – a latent class growth analysis

BACKGROUND: Acute organophosphorus (OP) poisoning is one of the major causes of mortality among patients presenting to emergency departments in developing countries. Although various predictors of mortality among OP poisoning patients have been identified, the role of repeated measurements of vital signs in determining the risk of mortality is not yet clear. Therefore, the present study examined the relationship between trajectories of vital signs and mortality among OP poisoning patients using latent class growth analysis (LCGA). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using data for 449 OP poisoning patients admitted to Civil-Hospital Karachi from Aug’10 to Sep’16. Demographic data and vital signs, including body temperature, blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, and partial-oxygen pressure, were retrieved from medical records. The trajectories of vital signs were formed using LCGA, and these trajectories were applied as independent variables to determine the risk of mortality using Cox-proportional hazards models. P-values of < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Data for 449 patients, with a mean age of 25.4 years (range 13–85 years), were included. Overall mortality was 13.4%(n = 60). In trajectory analysis, a low-declining systolic blood pressure, high-declining heart rate trajectory, high-remitting respiratory rate trajectory and normal-remitting partial-oxygen pressure trajectory resulted in the greatest mortality, i.e. 38.9,40.0,50.0, and 60.0%, respectively, compared with other trajectories of the same parameters. Based on multivariable analysis, patients with low-declining systolic blood pressure were three times [HR:3.0,95%CI:1.2–7.1] more likely to die compared with those who had a normal-stable systolic blood pressure. Moreover, patients with a high-declining heart rate were three times [HR:3.0,95%CI:1.5–6.2] more likely to die compared with those who had a high-stable heart rate. Patients with a high-remitting respiratory rate were six times [HR:5.7,95%CI:1.3–23.8] more likely to die than those with a high-stable respiratory rate. Patients with normal-remitting partial oxygen pressure were five times [HR:4.7,95%CI:1.4–15.1] more likely to die compared with those who had a normal-stable partial-oxygen pressure. CONCLUSION: The trajectories of systolic blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate and partial-oxygen pressure were significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality among OP poisoning patients.