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Health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of diversion programs for low-level drug offenders: A model-based analysis

BACKGROUND: Cycles of incarceration, drug abuse, and poverty undermine ongoing public health efforts to reduce overdose deaths and the spread of infectious disease in vulnerable populations. Jail diversion programs aim to divert low-level drug offenders toward community care resources, avoiding crim...

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Autores principales: Bernard, Cora L., Rao, Isabelle J., Robison, Konner K., Brandeau, Margaret L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7553283/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33048929
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003239
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author Bernard, Cora L.
Rao, Isabelle J.
Robison, Konner K.
Brandeau, Margaret L.
author_facet Bernard, Cora L.
Rao, Isabelle J.
Robison, Konner K.
Brandeau, Margaret L.
author_sort Bernard, Cora L.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Cycles of incarceration, drug abuse, and poverty undermine ongoing public health efforts to reduce overdose deaths and the spread of infectious disease in vulnerable populations. Jail diversion programs aim to divert low-level drug offenders toward community care resources, avoiding criminal justice costs and disruptions in treatment for HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and drug abuse. We sought to assess the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of a jail diversion program for low-level drug offenders. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a microsimulation model, calibrated to King County, Washington, that captured the spread of HIV and HCV infections and incarceration and treatment systems as well as preexisting interventions such as needle and syringe programs and opiate agonist therapy. We considered an adult population of people who inject drugs (PWID), people who use drugs but do not inject (PWUD), men who have sex with men, and lower-risk heterosexuals. We projected discounted lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a 10-year time horizon with and without a jail diversion program and calculated resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the health system and societal perspectives. We also tracked HIV and HCV infections, overdose deaths, and jail population size. Over 10 years, the program was estimated to reduce HIV and HCV incidence by 3.4% (95% CI 2.7%–4.0%) and 3.3% (95% CI 3.1%–3.4%), respectively, overdose deaths among PWID by 10.0% (95% CI 9.8%–10.8%), and jail population size by 6.3% (95% CI 5.9%–6.7%). When considering healthcare costs only, the program cost $25,500/QALY gained (95% CI $12,600–$48,600). Including savings from reduced incarceration (societal perspective) improved the ICER to $6,200/QALY gained (95% CI, cost-saving $24,300). Sensitivity analysis indicated that cost-effectiveness depends on diversion program participants accessing community programs such as needle and syringe programs, treatment for substance use disorder, and HIV and HCV treatment, as well as diversion program cost. A limitation of the analysis is data availability, as fewer data are available for diversion programs than for more established interventions aimed at people with substance use disorder. Additionally, like any model of a complex system, our model relies on simplifying assumptions: For example, we simplified pathways in the healthcare and criminal justice systems, modeled an average efficacy for substance use disorder treatment, and did not include costs associated with homelessness, unemployment, and breakdown in family structure. CONCLUSIONS: We found that diversion programs for low-level drug offenders are likely to be cost-effective, generating savings in the criminal justice system while only moderately increasing healthcare costs. Such programs can reduce incarceration and its associated costs, and also avert overdose deaths and improve quality of life for PWID, PWUD, and the broader population (through reduced HIV and HCV transmission).
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spelling pubmed-75532832020-10-21 Health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of diversion programs for low-level drug offenders: A model-based analysis Bernard, Cora L. Rao, Isabelle J. Robison, Konner K. Brandeau, Margaret L. PLoS Med Research Article BACKGROUND: Cycles of incarceration, drug abuse, and poverty undermine ongoing public health efforts to reduce overdose deaths and the spread of infectious disease in vulnerable populations. Jail diversion programs aim to divert low-level drug offenders toward community care resources, avoiding criminal justice costs and disruptions in treatment for HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and drug abuse. We sought to assess the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of a jail diversion program for low-level drug offenders. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a microsimulation model, calibrated to King County, Washington, that captured the spread of HIV and HCV infections and incarceration and treatment systems as well as preexisting interventions such as needle and syringe programs and opiate agonist therapy. We considered an adult population of people who inject drugs (PWID), people who use drugs but do not inject (PWUD), men who have sex with men, and lower-risk heterosexuals. We projected discounted lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a 10-year time horizon with and without a jail diversion program and calculated resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the health system and societal perspectives. We also tracked HIV and HCV infections, overdose deaths, and jail population size. Over 10 years, the program was estimated to reduce HIV and HCV incidence by 3.4% (95% CI 2.7%–4.0%) and 3.3% (95% CI 3.1%–3.4%), respectively, overdose deaths among PWID by 10.0% (95% CI 9.8%–10.8%), and jail population size by 6.3% (95% CI 5.9%–6.7%). When considering healthcare costs only, the program cost $25,500/QALY gained (95% CI $12,600–$48,600). Including savings from reduced incarceration (societal perspective) improved the ICER to $6,200/QALY gained (95% CI, cost-saving $24,300). Sensitivity analysis indicated that cost-effectiveness depends on diversion program participants accessing community programs such as needle and syringe programs, treatment for substance use disorder, and HIV and HCV treatment, as well as diversion program cost. A limitation of the analysis is data availability, as fewer data are available for diversion programs than for more established interventions aimed at people with substance use disorder. Additionally, like any model of a complex system, our model relies on simplifying assumptions: For example, we simplified pathways in the healthcare and criminal justice systems, modeled an average efficacy for substance use disorder treatment, and did not include costs associated with homelessness, unemployment, and breakdown in family structure. CONCLUSIONS: We found that diversion programs for low-level drug offenders are likely to be cost-effective, generating savings in the criminal justice system while only moderately increasing healthcare costs. Such programs can reduce incarceration and its associated costs, and also avert overdose deaths and improve quality of life for PWID, PWUD, and the broader population (through reduced HIV and HCV transmission). Public Library of Science 2020-10-13 /pmc/articles/PMC7553283/ /pubmed/33048929 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003239 Text en © 2020 Bernard et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Bernard, Cora L.
Rao, Isabelle J.
Robison, Konner K.
Brandeau, Margaret L.
Health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of diversion programs for low-level drug offenders: A model-based analysis
title Health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of diversion programs for low-level drug offenders: A model-based analysis
title_full Health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of diversion programs for low-level drug offenders: A model-based analysis
title_fullStr Health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of diversion programs for low-level drug offenders: A model-based analysis
title_full_unstemmed Health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of diversion programs for low-level drug offenders: A model-based analysis
title_short Health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of diversion programs for low-level drug offenders: A model-based analysis
title_sort health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of diversion programs for low-level drug offenders: a model-based analysis
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7553283/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33048929
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003239
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