A modified Delphi method to elicit and compare perceptions of industry trends

Existing literature suggests that one reason why incumbent firms fail at radical business model innovation is the existence of cognitive barriers, such as a dominant core business logic. Such a dominant logic may result in organizational tensions, when a new logic emerges. In a related article in Technological Forecasting & Social Change, we argue that differences in strategic issue identification and interpretation can help to explain the cognitive barriers in this context. In the present article, we propose and demonstrate a 7-step Delphi based method to elicit and examine differences in the perception of industry trends, comparing innovators, core business employees, and external experts. We use the case study of a leading Nordic insurance firm to illustrate the method. Therefore, in this article, we: • Suggest that differences in strategic issue identification and interpretation can explain the cognitive barriers that emerge when incumbent firms try to engage with radical business model innovation. • Propose a Delphi-based method to elicit and examine differences in the perception of industry trends, comparing innovators, core business employees, and external experts. • Demonstrate the method on a case firm from the insurance industry, in a way that can easily be replicated in future studies.