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Epidemiological changes on the Isle of Wight after the launch of the NHS Test and Trace programme: a preliminary analysis

BACKGROUND: In May 2020, the UK National Health Service (NHS) Test and Trace programme was launched in England in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The programme was first rolled out on the Isle of Wight and included version 1 of the NHS contact tracing app. The aim of the study was to make a preli...

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Autores principales: Kendall, Michelle, Milsom, Luke, Abeler-Dörner, Lucie, Wymant, Chris, Ferretti, Luca, Briers, Mark, Holmes, Chris, Bonsall, David, Abeler, Johannes, Fraser, Christophe
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7556784/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33078140
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30241-7
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author Kendall, Michelle
Milsom, Luke
Abeler-Dörner, Lucie
Wymant, Chris
Ferretti, Luca
Briers, Mark
Holmes, Chris
Bonsall, David
Abeler, Johannes
Fraser, Christophe
author_facet Kendall, Michelle
Milsom, Luke
Abeler-Dörner, Lucie
Wymant, Chris
Ferretti, Luca
Briers, Mark
Holmes, Chris
Bonsall, David
Abeler, Johannes
Fraser, Christophe
author_sort Kendall, Michelle
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: In May 2020, the UK National Health Service (NHS) Test and Trace programme was launched in England in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The programme was first rolled out on the Isle of Wight and included version 1 of the NHS contact tracing app. The aim of the study was to make a preliminary assessment of the epidemiological impact of the Test and Trace programme using publicly available data. METHODS: We used COVID-19 daily case data from Public Health England to infer incidence of new infections and estimate the reproduction number (R) for each of the 150 Upper-Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in England and nationally, before and after the launch of the Test and Trace programme on the Isle of Wight. We used Bayesian and maximum-likelihood methods to estimate R and compared the Isle of Wight with other UTLAs using a synthetic control method. FINDINGS: We observed significant decreases in incidence and R on the Isle of Wight immediately after the launch of the Test and Trace programme. The Isle of Wight had a marked reduction in R, from 1·3 before the Test and Trace programme to 0·5 after by one of our measures, and went from having the third highest R before the Test and Trace programme, to the twelfth lowest afterwards compared with other UTLAs. INTERPRETATION: Our results show that the epidemic on the Isle of Wight was controlled quickly and effectively after the launch of Test and Trace. Our findings highlight the need for further research to determine the causes of the reduction in the spread of the disease, as these could be translated into local and national non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in the period before a treatment or vaccination for COVID-19 becomes available. FUNDING: Li Ka Shing Foundation and UK Economic and Social Research Council.
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spelling pubmed-75567842020-10-15 Epidemiological changes on the Isle of Wight after the launch of the NHS Test and Trace programme: a preliminary analysis Kendall, Michelle Milsom, Luke Abeler-Dörner, Lucie Wymant, Chris Ferretti, Luca Briers, Mark Holmes, Chris Bonsall, David Abeler, Johannes Fraser, Christophe Lancet Digit Health Articles BACKGROUND: In May 2020, the UK National Health Service (NHS) Test and Trace programme was launched in England in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The programme was first rolled out on the Isle of Wight and included version 1 of the NHS contact tracing app. The aim of the study was to make a preliminary assessment of the epidemiological impact of the Test and Trace programme using publicly available data. METHODS: We used COVID-19 daily case data from Public Health England to infer incidence of new infections and estimate the reproduction number (R) for each of the 150 Upper-Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in England and nationally, before and after the launch of the Test and Trace programme on the Isle of Wight. We used Bayesian and maximum-likelihood methods to estimate R and compared the Isle of Wight with other UTLAs using a synthetic control method. FINDINGS: We observed significant decreases in incidence and R on the Isle of Wight immediately after the launch of the Test and Trace programme. The Isle of Wight had a marked reduction in R, from 1·3 before the Test and Trace programme to 0·5 after by one of our measures, and went from having the third highest R before the Test and Trace programme, to the twelfth lowest afterwards compared with other UTLAs. INTERPRETATION: Our results show that the epidemic on the Isle of Wight was controlled quickly and effectively after the launch of Test and Trace. Our findings highlight the need for further research to determine the causes of the reduction in the spread of the disease, as these could be translated into local and national non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in the period before a treatment or vaccination for COVID-19 becomes available. FUNDING: Li Ka Shing Foundation and UK Economic and Social Research Council. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2020-12 2020-10-14 /pmc/articles/PMC7556784/ /pubmed/33078140 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30241-7 Text en © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Articles
Kendall, Michelle
Milsom, Luke
Abeler-Dörner, Lucie
Wymant, Chris
Ferretti, Luca
Briers, Mark
Holmes, Chris
Bonsall, David
Abeler, Johannes
Fraser, Christophe
Epidemiological changes on the Isle of Wight after the launch of the NHS Test and Trace programme: a preliminary analysis
title Epidemiological changes on the Isle of Wight after the launch of the NHS Test and Trace programme: a preliminary analysis
title_full Epidemiological changes on the Isle of Wight after the launch of the NHS Test and Trace programme: a preliminary analysis
title_fullStr Epidemiological changes on the Isle of Wight after the launch of the NHS Test and Trace programme: a preliminary analysis
title_full_unstemmed Epidemiological changes on the Isle of Wight after the launch of the NHS Test and Trace programme: a preliminary analysis
title_short Epidemiological changes on the Isle of Wight after the launch of the NHS Test and Trace programme: a preliminary analysis
title_sort epidemiological changes on the isle of wight after the launch of the nhs test and trace programme: a preliminary analysis
topic Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7556784/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33078140
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30241-7
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