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A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe

The self-organizing mechanism is a universal approach that is widely followed in nature. In this work, a novel self-organizing model describing diffusion over a lattice is introduced. Simulation results for the model’s active lattice sites demonstrate an evolution curve that is very close to those d...

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Autores principales: Contoyiannis, Yiannis, Stavrinides, Stavros G., P. Hanias, Michael, Kampitakis, Myron, Papadopoulos, Pericles, Picos, Rodrigo, M. Potirakis, Stelios
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7558066/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32911647
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17186525
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author Contoyiannis, Yiannis
Stavrinides, Stavros G.
P. Hanias, Michael
Kampitakis, Myron
Papadopoulos, Pericles
Picos, Rodrigo
M. Potirakis, Stelios
author_facet Contoyiannis, Yiannis
Stavrinides, Stavros G.
P. Hanias, Michael
Kampitakis, Myron
Papadopoulos, Pericles
Picos, Rodrigo
M. Potirakis, Stelios
author_sort Contoyiannis, Yiannis
collection PubMed
description The self-organizing mechanism is a universal approach that is widely followed in nature. In this work, a novel self-organizing model describing diffusion over a lattice is introduced. Simulation results for the model’s active lattice sites demonstrate an evolution curve that is very close to those describing the evolution of infected European populations by COVID-19. The model was further examined against real data regarding the COVID-19 epidemic for seven European countries (with a total population of 290 million) during the periods in which social distancing measures were imposed, namely Italy and Spain, which had an enormous spread of the disease; the successful case of Greece; and four central European countries: France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. The value of the proposed model lies in its simplicity and in the fact that it is based on a universal natural mechanism, which through the presentation of an equivalent dynamical system apparently documents and provides a better understanding of the dynamical process behind viral epidemic spreads in general—even pandemics, such as in the case of COVID-19—further allowing us to come closer to controlling such situations. Finally, this model allowed the study of dynamical characteristics such as the memory effect, through the autocorrelation function, in the studied epidemiological dynamical systems.
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spelling pubmed-75580662020-10-22 A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe Contoyiannis, Yiannis Stavrinides, Stavros G. P. Hanias, Michael Kampitakis, Myron Papadopoulos, Pericles Picos, Rodrigo M. Potirakis, Stelios Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The self-organizing mechanism is a universal approach that is widely followed in nature. In this work, a novel self-organizing model describing diffusion over a lattice is introduced. Simulation results for the model’s active lattice sites demonstrate an evolution curve that is very close to those describing the evolution of infected European populations by COVID-19. The model was further examined against real data regarding the COVID-19 epidemic for seven European countries (with a total population of 290 million) during the periods in which social distancing measures were imposed, namely Italy and Spain, which had an enormous spread of the disease; the successful case of Greece; and four central European countries: France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. The value of the proposed model lies in its simplicity and in the fact that it is based on a universal natural mechanism, which through the presentation of an equivalent dynamical system apparently documents and provides a better understanding of the dynamical process behind viral epidemic spreads in general—even pandemics, such as in the case of COVID-19—further allowing us to come closer to controlling such situations. Finally, this model allowed the study of dynamical characteristics such as the memory effect, through the autocorrelation function, in the studied epidemiological dynamical systems. MDPI 2020-09-08 2020-09 /pmc/articles/PMC7558066/ /pubmed/32911647 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17186525 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Contoyiannis, Yiannis
Stavrinides, Stavros G.
P. Hanias, Michael
Kampitakis, Myron
Papadopoulos, Pericles
Picos, Rodrigo
M. Potirakis, Stelios
A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe
title A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe
title_full A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe
title_fullStr A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe
title_full_unstemmed A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe
title_short A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe
title_sort universal physics-based model describing covid-19 dynamics in europe
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7558066/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32911647
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17186525
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