Assessing correlations between short-term exposure to atmospheric pollutants and COVID-19 spread in all Italian territorial areas()

The spread of SARS-CoV-2, the beta coronavirus responsible for the current pneumonia pandemic outbreak, has been speculated to be linked to short-term and long-term atmospheric pollutants exposure. The present work has been aimed at analyzing the atmospheric pollutants concentrations (PM(10), PM(2.5), NO(2)) and spatio-temporal distribution of cases and deaths (specifically incidence, mortality and lethality rates) across the whole Italian national territory, down to the level of each individual territorial area, with the goal of checking any potential short-term correlation between these two phenomena. The data analysis has been limited to the first quarter of 2020 to reduce the lockdown-dependent biased effects on the atmospheric pollutant levels as much as possible. The analysis looked at non-linear, monotonic correlations using the Spearman non-parametric correlation index. The statistical significance of the Spearman correlations has also been evaluated. The results of the statistical analysis suggest the hypothesis of a moderate-to-strong correlation between the number of days exceeding the annual regulatory limits of PM(10), PM(2.5) and NO(2) atmospheric pollutants and COVID-19 incidence, mortality and lethality rates for all the 107 territorial areas in Italy. A weak-to-moderate correlation seems to exist when considering the 36 territorial areas in four of the most affected regions (Lombardy, Piedmont, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto). Overall, PM(10) and PM(2.5) showed a higher non-linear correlation than NO(2) with incidence, mortality and lethality rates. As to particulate matters, PM(10) profile has been compared with the incidence rate variation that occurred in three of the most affected territorial areas in Northern Italy (i.e., Milan, Brescia, and Bergamo). All areas showed a similar PM(10) time trend but a different incidence rate variation, that was less severe in Milan compared with Brescia and Bergamo.