Cargando…

Outbreak of COVID-19 and SARS in mainland China: a comparative study based on national surveillance data

OBJECTIVE: To compare the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics in relation to interventions against the COVID-19 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in mainland China. DESIGN: Comparative study based on a unique data set of COVID-19 and SARS. SETTING: Outbreak...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Zhao, Lin, Feng, Dan, Ye, Run-Ze, Wang, Hai-Tao, Zhou, Yu-Hao, Wei, Jia-Te, J. de Vlas, Sake, Cui, Xiao-Ming, Jia, Na, Yin, Chao-Nan, Li, Shi-Xue, Wang, Zhi-Qiang, Cao, Wu-Chun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BMJ Publishing Group 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7565247/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33060093
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043411
_version_ 1783595893557035008
author Zhao, Lin
Feng, Dan
Ye, Run-Ze
Wang, Hai-Tao
Zhou, Yu-Hao
Wei, Jia-Te
J. de Vlas, Sake
Cui, Xiao-Ming
Jia, Na
Yin, Chao-Nan
Li, Shi-Xue
Wang, Zhi-Qiang
Cao, Wu-Chun
author_facet Zhao, Lin
Feng, Dan
Ye, Run-Ze
Wang, Hai-Tao
Zhou, Yu-Hao
Wei, Jia-Te
J. de Vlas, Sake
Cui, Xiao-Ming
Jia, Na
Yin, Chao-Nan
Li, Shi-Xue
Wang, Zhi-Qiang
Cao, Wu-Chun
author_sort Zhao, Lin
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVE: To compare the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics in relation to interventions against the COVID-19 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in mainland China. DESIGN: Comparative study based on a unique data set of COVID-19 and SARS. SETTING: Outbreak in mainland China. PARTICIPANTS: The final database included 82 858 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 5327 cases of SARS. METHODS: We brought together all existing data sources and integrated them into a comprehensive data set. Individual information on age, sex, occupation, residence location, date of illness onset, date of diagnosis and clinical outcome was extracted. Control measures deployed in mainland China were collected. We compared the epidemiological and spatial characteristics of COVID-19 and SARS. We estimated the effective reproduction number to explore differences in transmission dynamics and intervention effects. RESULTS: Compared with SARS, COVID-19 affected more extensive areas (1668 vs 230 counties) within a shorter time (101 vs 193 days) and had higher attack rate (61.8 vs 4.0 per million persons). The COVID-19 outbreak had only one epidemic peak and one epicentre (Hubei Province), while the SARS outbreak resulted in two peaks and two epicentres (Guangdong Province and Beijing). SARS-CoV-2 was more likely to infect older people (median age of 52 years), while SARS-CoV tended to infect young adults (median age of 34 years). The case fatality rate (CFR) of either disease increased with age, but the CFR of COVID-19 was significantly lower than that of SARS (5.6% vs 6.4%). The trajectory of effective reproduction number dynamically changed in relation to interventions, which fell below 1 within 2 months for COVID-19 and within 5.5 months for SARS. CONCLUSIONS: China has taken more prompt and effective responses to combat COVID-19 by learning lessons from SARS, providing us with some epidemiological clues to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic worldwide.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7565247
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2020
publisher BMJ Publishing Group
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-75652472020-10-19 Outbreak of COVID-19 and SARS in mainland China: a comparative study based on national surveillance data Zhao, Lin Feng, Dan Ye, Run-Ze Wang, Hai-Tao Zhou, Yu-Hao Wei, Jia-Te J. de Vlas, Sake Cui, Xiao-Ming Jia, Na Yin, Chao-Nan Li, Shi-Xue Wang, Zhi-Qiang Cao, Wu-Chun BMJ Open Epidemiology OBJECTIVE: To compare the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics in relation to interventions against the COVID-19 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in mainland China. DESIGN: Comparative study based on a unique data set of COVID-19 and SARS. SETTING: Outbreak in mainland China. PARTICIPANTS: The final database included 82 858 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 5327 cases of SARS. METHODS: We brought together all existing data sources and integrated them into a comprehensive data set. Individual information on age, sex, occupation, residence location, date of illness onset, date of diagnosis and clinical outcome was extracted. Control measures deployed in mainland China were collected. We compared the epidemiological and spatial characteristics of COVID-19 and SARS. We estimated the effective reproduction number to explore differences in transmission dynamics and intervention effects. RESULTS: Compared with SARS, COVID-19 affected more extensive areas (1668 vs 230 counties) within a shorter time (101 vs 193 days) and had higher attack rate (61.8 vs 4.0 per million persons). The COVID-19 outbreak had only one epidemic peak and one epicentre (Hubei Province), while the SARS outbreak resulted in two peaks and two epicentres (Guangdong Province and Beijing). SARS-CoV-2 was more likely to infect older people (median age of 52 years), while SARS-CoV tended to infect young adults (median age of 34 years). The case fatality rate (CFR) of either disease increased with age, but the CFR of COVID-19 was significantly lower than that of SARS (5.6% vs 6.4%). The trajectory of effective reproduction number dynamically changed in relation to interventions, which fell below 1 within 2 months for COVID-19 and within 5.5 months for SARS. CONCLUSIONS: China has taken more prompt and effective responses to combat COVID-19 by learning lessons from SARS, providing us with some epidemiological clues to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. BMJ Publishing Group 2020-10-15 /pmc/articles/PMC7565247/ /pubmed/33060093 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043411 Text en © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Epidemiology
Zhao, Lin
Feng, Dan
Ye, Run-Ze
Wang, Hai-Tao
Zhou, Yu-Hao
Wei, Jia-Te
J. de Vlas, Sake
Cui, Xiao-Ming
Jia, Na
Yin, Chao-Nan
Li, Shi-Xue
Wang, Zhi-Qiang
Cao, Wu-Chun
Outbreak of COVID-19 and SARS in mainland China: a comparative study based on national surveillance data
title Outbreak of COVID-19 and SARS in mainland China: a comparative study based on national surveillance data
title_full Outbreak of COVID-19 and SARS in mainland China: a comparative study based on national surveillance data
title_fullStr Outbreak of COVID-19 and SARS in mainland China: a comparative study based on national surveillance data
title_full_unstemmed Outbreak of COVID-19 and SARS in mainland China: a comparative study based on national surveillance data
title_short Outbreak of COVID-19 and SARS in mainland China: a comparative study based on national surveillance data
title_sort outbreak of covid-19 and sars in mainland china: a comparative study based on national surveillance data
topic Epidemiology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7565247/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33060093
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043411
work_keys_str_mv AT zhaolin outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata
AT fengdan outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata
AT yerunze outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata
AT wanghaitao outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata
AT zhouyuhao outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata
AT weijiate outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata
AT jdevlassake outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata
AT cuixiaoming outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata
AT jiana outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata
AT yinchaonan outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata
AT lishixue outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata
AT wangzhiqiang outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata
AT caowuchun outbreakofcovid19andsarsinmainlandchinaacomparativestudybasedonnationalsurveillancedata