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Monitoring the mortality impact of COVID-19 in Europe: What can be learned from 2009 influenza H1N1p mortality studies?

OBJECTIVES: Understanding the proportion of pandemic deaths captured as ‘laboratory-confirmed’ deaths is crucial. We assessed the ability of laboratory-confirmed deaths to capture mortality in the EU during the 2009 pandemic, and examined the likelihood that these findings are applicable to the SARS...

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Autores principales: Staadegaard, Lisa, Taylor, Robert J., Spreeuwenberg, Peter, Caini, Saverio, Simonsen, Lone, Paget, John
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7566873/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33075528
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.037
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author Staadegaard, Lisa
Taylor, Robert J.
Spreeuwenberg, Peter
Caini, Saverio
Simonsen, Lone
Paget, John
author_facet Staadegaard, Lisa
Taylor, Robert J.
Spreeuwenberg, Peter
Caini, Saverio
Simonsen, Lone
Paget, John
author_sort Staadegaard, Lisa
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: Understanding the proportion of pandemic deaths captured as ‘laboratory-confirmed’ deaths is crucial. We assessed the ability of laboratory-confirmed deaths to capture mortality in the EU during the 2009 pandemic, and examined the likelihood that these findings are applicable to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. METHODS: We present unpublished results from the Global Pandemic Mortality (GLaMOR) project, in which country-specific mortality estimates were made for the 2009 influenza H1N1p pandemic. These estimates were compared with laboratory-confirmed deaths during the 2009 pandemic to estimate the ability of surveillance systems to capture pandemic mortality. RESULTS: For the 2009 influenza H1N1p pandemic, we estimated that the proportion of true pandemic deaths captured by laboratory-confirmed deaths was approximately 67%. Several differences between the two pandemics (e.g. age groups affected) make it unlikely that this capture rate will be equally high for SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSION: The surveillance of laboratory-confirmed deaths in the EU during the 2009 pandemic was more accurate than previously assumed. We hypothesize that this method is less reliable for SARS-CoV-2. Near-real-time excess all-cause mortality estimates, routinely compiled by EuroMOMO, probably offer a better indicator of pandemic mortality. We urge more countries to join this project and that national-level absolute mortality numbers are presented.
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spelling pubmed-75668732020-10-19 Monitoring the mortality impact of COVID-19 in Europe: What can be learned from 2009 influenza H1N1p mortality studies? Staadegaard, Lisa Taylor, Robert J. Spreeuwenberg, Peter Caini, Saverio Simonsen, Lone Paget, John Int J Infect Dis Perspective OBJECTIVES: Understanding the proportion of pandemic deaths captured as ‘laboratory-confirmed’ deaths is crucial. We assessed the ability of laboratory-confirmed deaths to capture mortality in the EU during the 2009 pandemic, and examined the likelihood that these findings are applicable to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. METHODS: We present unpublished results from the Global Pandemic Mortality (GLaMOR) project, in which country-specific mortality estimates were made for the 2009 influenza H1N1p pandemic. These estimates were compared with laboratory-confirmed deaths during the 2009 pandemic to estimate the ability of surveillance systems to capture pandemic mortality. RESULTS: For the 2009 influenza H1N1p pandemic, we estimated that the proportion of true pandemic deaths captured by laboratory-confirmed deaths was approximately 67%. Several differences between the two pandemics (e.g. age groups affected) make it unlikely that this capture rate will be equally high for SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSION: The surveillance of laboratory-confirmed deaths in the EU during the 2009 pandemic was more accurate than previously assumed. We hypothesize that this method is less reliable for SARS-CoV-2. Near-real-time excess all-cause mortality estimates, routinely compiled by EuroMOMO, probably offer a better indicator of pandemic mortality. We urge more countries to join this project and that national-level absolute mortality numbers are presented. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2021-01 2020-10-16 /pmc/articles/PMC7566873/ /pubmed/33075528 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.037 Text en © 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Perspective
Staadegaard, Lisa
Taylor, Robert J.
Spreeuwenberg, Peter
Caini, Saverio
Simonsen, Lone
Paget, John
Monitoring the mortality impact of COVID-19 in Europe: What can be learned from 2009 influenza H1N1p mortality studies?
title Monitoring the mortality impact of COVID-19 in Europe: What can be learned from 2009 influenza H1N1p mortality studies?
title_full Monitoring the mortality impact of COVID-19 in Europe: What can be learned from 2009 influenza H1N1p mortality studies?
title_fullStr Monitoring the mortality impact of COVID-19 in Europe: What can be learned from 2009 influenza H1N1p mortality studies?
title_full_unstemmed Monitoring the mortality impact of COVID-19 in Europe: What can be learned from 2009 influenza H1N1p mortality studies?
title_short Monitoring the mortality impact of COVID-19 in Europe: What can be learned from 2009 influenza H1N1p mortality studies?
title_sort monitoring the mortality impact of covid-19 in europe: what can be learned from 2009 influenza h1n1p mortality studies?
topic Perspective
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7566873/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33075528
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.037
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