Piecewise-constant optimal control strategies for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Irish population

We introduce a deterministic SEIR model and fit it to epidemiological data for the COVID-19 outbreak in Ireland. We couple the model to economic considerations — we formulate an optimal control problem in which the cost to the economy of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions is minimized, sub...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Náraigh, Lennon Ó, Byrne, Áine
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. 2020
Materias:
Original Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7566875/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33075364
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108496
Descripción
Sumario:We introduce a deterministic SEIR model and fit it to epidemiological data for the COVID-19 outbreak in Ireland. We couple the model to economic considerations — we formulate an optimal control problem in which the cost to the economy of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions is minimized, subject to hospital admissions never exceeding a threshold value corresponding to health-service capacity. Within the framework of the model, the optimal strategy of disease control is revealed to be one of disease suppression, rather than disease mitigation.

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