Piecewise-constant optimal control strategies for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Irish population

We introduce a deterministic SEIR model and fit it to epidemiological data for the COVID-19 outbreak in Ireland. We couple the model to economic considerations — we formulate an optimal control problem in which the cost to the economy of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions is minimized, sub...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Náraigh, Lennon Ó, Byrne, Áine
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. 2020
Materias:
Original Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7566875/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33075364
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108496
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author Náraigh, Lennon Ó
Byrne, Áine
author_facet Náraigh, Lennon Ó
Byrne, Áine
author_sort Náraigh, Lennon Ó
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description We introduce a deterministic SEIR model and fit it to epidemiological data for the COVID-19 outbreak in Ireland. We couple the model to economic considerations — we formulate an optimal control problem in which the cost to the economy of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions is minimized, subject to hospital admissions never exceeding a threshold value corresponding to health-service capacity. Within the framework of the model, the optimal strategy of disease control is revealed to be one of disease suppression, rather than disease mitigation.
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spelling pubmed-75668752020-10-19 Piecewise-constant optimal control strategies for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Irish population Náraigh, Lennon Ó Byrne, Áine Math Biosci Original Research Article We introduce a deterministic SEIR model and fit it to epidemiological data for the COVID-19 outbreak in Ireland. We couple the model to economic considerations — we formulate an optimal control problem in which the cost to the economy of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions is minimized, subject to hospital admissions never exceeding a threshold value corresponding to health-service capacity. Within the framework of the model, the optimal strategy of disease control is revealed to be one of disease suppression, rather than disease mitigation. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. 2020-12 2020-10-16 /pmc/articles/PMC7566875/ /pubmed/33075364 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108496 Text en © 2020 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Original Research Article
Náraigh, Lennon Ó
Byrne, Áine
Piecewise-constant optimal control strategies for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Irish population
title Piecewise-constant optimal control strategies for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Irish population
title_full Piecewise-constant optimal control strategies for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Irish population
title_fullStr Piecewise-constant optimal control strategies for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Irish population
title_full_unstemmed Piecewise-constant optimal control strategies for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Irish population
title_short Piecewise-constant optimal control strategies for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Irish population
title_sort piecewise-constant optimal control strategies for controlling the outbreak of covid-19 in the irish population
topic Original Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7566875/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33075364
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108496
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