Non-linear Dynamic Shifts in Distress After Wildfires: Further Tests of the Self-Regulation Shift Theory

Worldwide exposure to explosive wildfires has become increasingly common. The psychological impact of these fires is substantial, demanding a deeper understanding of post-wildfire adaptation. This paper consists of two studies aiming to test self-regulation shift theory and its predicted non-linear shifts in distress using cusp catastrophe analyses. Study 1 tested a cusp catastrophe model on distress after the Waldo Canyon wildfire, Colorado (June, 2012). Results of study 1 showed that coping self-efficacy early after the wildfire was a significant bifurcation factor affecting when a shift in distress levels occurred from a lower state to an upper state. Perceived loss was a significant asymmetry controlling factor affecting the relative strength of each state. These findings indicate that a non-linear shift is more likely to occur at lower levels of coping self-efficacy and higher perceived loss. Study 2 tested the same model among survivors of several wildfires in California during 2017 and 2018. Results of study 2 confirmed the importance of coping self-efficacy again as a significant bifurcation factor. In this case, peritraumatic dissociation was found to be a significant asymmetry controlling factor instead of loss. These results indicate that an upward shift in distress occurs when coping self-efficacy is lower and peritraumatic dissociation is higher. Collectively, the combined findings suggest that coping self-efficacy is a pivotal variable consistent with self-regulation shift theory predictions. Intervention implications are discussed.