A FDG-PET radiomics signature detects esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients who do not benefit from chemoradiation

Detection of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who do not benefit from standard chemoradiation (CRT) is an important medical need. Radiomics using 18-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) is a promising approach. In this retrospective study of 184 patients with locally advanced ESCC. 152 patients from one center were grouped into a training cohort (n = 100) and an internal validation cohort (n = 52). External validation was performed with 32 patients treated at a second center. Primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS), secondary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and local control (LC). FDG-PET radiomics features were selected by Lasso-Cox regression analyses and a separate radiomics signature was calculated for each endpoint. In the training cohort radiomics signatures containing up to four PET derived features were able to identify non-responders in regard of all endpoints (DFS p < 0.001, LC p = 0.003, OS p = 0.001). After successful internal validation of the cutoff values generated by the training cohort for DFS (p = 0.025) and OS (p = 0.002), external validation using these cutoffs was successful for DFS (p = 0.002) but not for the other investigated endpoints. These results suggest that pre-treatment FDG-PET features may be useful to detect patients who do not respond to CRT and could benefit from alternative treatment.